Why the Baltimore Ravens are the Most Dangerous AFC Team, Super Bowl Odds

Every team in the NFL enters a season believing in itself, or at least that’s what we tell ourselves. But some clubs don’t get the recognition they feel they deserve, rightly or wrongly. The Baltimore Ravens were that team this year. It seemed obvious that the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, or Cincinnati Bengals were the squads to beat in the AFC to reach the Super Bowl. And don’t forget about the upstart the Jacksonville Jaguars, they’re a fun dark horse to root for that will cause damage.

And yet, with only four games left on the schedule before playoff football, it’s the Ravens who hold all the cards, sitting in the conference’s number-one seed with a 10-3 record. What are their odds now and can they be the beasts of the AFC?

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Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl and AFC Odds

As of Tuesday, December 12, after all of Week 13’s action, the Baltimore Ravens are looking good as AFC and Super Bowl contenders.

To win it all and restore glory to the Maryland area, Baltimore is currently pegged at +600, behind only the San Francisco 49ers (10-3). The latter are an excellent +250 and have threatened to win the big game all season long. The Brock Purdy episode is no longer an experiment. That team is for real.

Even so, in Baltimore’s case, +600 for a side that began the season at +1800 is a terrific rise in the ranks. Even the Kansas City Chiefs (8-5), the automatic favourite, are in third place at +650. Not far behind, granted, but still a pace behind John Harbaugh’s group.

As for the conference, the Ravens sit at +240 to the Chiefs’ +300. Close, but it’s interesting to see the number crunchers believing in Baltimore that much. Of course, arguing that the team with the best record has the best odds is simple. They’ve won the most and lost the least.

Lamar Jackson and his Flock of WRs

It’s easy to forget that Lamar Jackson is a former league MVP. He earned the plaudits for his sensational 2019 campaign. The club itself was an extraordinary 14-2 (this was before the 17-game regular season schedule) but was stunned in the second round of the playoffs by the Tennessee Titans. That year everyone wanted to see a Lamar Jackson vs. Patrick Mahomes AFC Championship game but it never materialized. The rest, as they say, is history: two Super Bowl wins for the Chiefs, three big game appearances, and a second MVP for Mahomes (he also won in 2018).

There’s no beating around the bush. Jackson is not putting up the sort of numbers he did in 2019. Conversely, he isn’t the “run first”, wobbly passer he all too often was. Jackson currently sits seventh in the NFL in QB rating (97.7) and 10^thin completion percentage (66.8). He hasn’t given up on making plays with his legs, tallying 644 total yards on the ground through 14 weeks. Technically he’s a top 25 NFL rusher even though he doesn’t play the position. Unlike in years past, however, the signal-caller is working to extend plays as opposed to simply taking off. Jackson is also very careful with the ball, throwing only six picks so far.

The injury to TE Mark Andrews a few weeks ago was a big blow to the offence, but his presence and productivity may have helped Jackson become a purer passer (he’ll never be a true pocket passer and he’s all the more exciting because of that). WR Zay Flowers is having a nice season with 673 yards (10.5 average per catch). The rookie wideout is turning out to be one of the best off-season decisions the franchise has made in a while.

Speaking of summer moves that look good in December, how about Odell Beckham Jr.? He missed some playing time earlier in the year but the injuries haven’t stopped him from garnering 505 yards (16.3 average) and six scores. He doesn’t explode as much as he used to but no one can watch him play and remain unconvinced that he’s still got some mojo.

Nelson Agholor is a little further behind in total yards with only 314, but given that he averages 12.6 per catch, when Jackson goes to him, it’s for a big play.

Ravens that Run

One thing the Ravens have been terrific at for many years, especially since Jackson’s arrival, is running the ball.

RB Gus Edwards isn’t going to be a rushing king anytime soon, but his 605 total yards and 10 TDs through 13 games make him a formidable weapon that opposing defences would be remiss to not consider when preparing to face Baltimore. Fellow back Keaton Mitchell is the Robin of the group. He doesn’t get nearly as many touches (38) but has somehow averaged a whopping 8.5 carries per carry. Justice Hill also averages 4.4 yards per tote and has totalled 290.

When all is said and done, the Baltimore Ravens sport the number one rushing attack in the NFL, averaging 157.1 yards a game.

Defence Wins Championships

None of this would matter were it not for one of the league’s better defensive units. Led by LB Roquan Smith, DT Justin Madubuike, and S Geno Stone, Baltimore is one of the more difficult teams to make plays against.

They rank second in yards conceded per game, coughing up only 284.4. Throwing the ball against them isn’t a lot of fun as teams average only 180.2 yards a game. Be careful when tossing the pigskin in Geno Stone’s direction. He has six picks already this season.

Baltimore has crushed several opponents in the first three months of action, as evidenced by the fact that they only allow 16.8 points a game and score 27.8! There are some outliers, such as last Sunday when the Rams came to their house and put up 31, but generally, this has been as solid an ensemble as we’ve seen in the NFL in 2023.

What are we to make of all this?

The jury is out on the Jaguars. Incidentally, the Ravens and Jags tussle this Sunday night. The Chiefs have legendary talent in Mahomes and Travis Kelce, but repeating as champs is notoriously difficult. The Bills are in the playoff picture but have been inconsistent. The Bengals and Browns may have QB issues too big to overcome. Houston is a fun story but also very young – not to mention might have a banged-up C.J. Stroud. This seems like as good a year as ever for the Ravens to finally make good on years of promise and potential.