NFL Odds & Predictions: Betting Tom Brady 2020 Season Props

Payton Matthews | Updated Mar 24, 2020

tom brady

Tom Brady will have arguably the best duo of wide receivers in the NFL and the best of his career perhaps in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had really never had a true franchise quarterback in team history. They do now with Tom Brady. Let’s break down his 2020 regular-season NFL player prop odds.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady Odds

How crazy has the past week been regarding NFL quarterbacks? Granted, Tom Brady might be the greatest signal-caller in NFL history with his record six Super Bowl titles. It was a no-brainer for the Tampa Bay Bucs to heavily pursue the former New England Patriot but still a surprise Brady did leave the Boston area for Florida.

Brady is going to be 43 in August and he did regress last year; his final pass as a member of the Patriots was an interception returned for a touchdown by the Tennessee Titans in their Wild-Card Round upset at New England.

Teams were tripping over themselves to sign Brady, yet two former Heisman Trophy winners who won national championships in college and were No. 1 overall draft picks, Cam Newton and Jameis Winston, are on the market with very few if any suitors right now. It’s possible the Patriots sign one of those two to replace Brady; young Jarrett Stidham is the +199 favourite to be New England’s starter Week 1 with Newton at +301 – he was officially released by Carolina on Tuesday – and Winston at +502. Of course, Brady replaced Winston with the Bucs.

NFL Player Prop Odds

Brady will not be the oldest-ever quarterback to make an NFL start when he takes the field in Week 1 – who might the Bucs play? It’s almost a lock they will be featured against a marquee matchup in prime-time simply because of Brady.

The oldest quarterback to start a game was Steve DeBerg, who once played for the Bucs, on Oct. 25, 1998 while with the Atlanta Falcons. DeBerg was 44 years and 249 days old and was frankly terrible in a 28-3 loss to the New York Jets in completing 9-for-20 for 117 yards and an interception. Brady will be the oldest projected full-season QB in league history.

Current NFL odds have Brady’s over/under totals of 4,200.5 passing yards this season (both -120) and 30.5 touchdown passes (both -120).

Tom Brady

Total Passing Yards - Regular Season
  • Over -120 +4200
  • Under -120 +4200

On the bright side, Brady has arguably the best duo of wide receivers in the NFL and the best of his career perhaps in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Both topped 1,000 yards last year despite each missing a few games due to injury. Evans, a perennial Pro Bowler, had 67 catches for 1,157 yards and eight scores, and Godwin, one of the breakout stars around the league in 2019, had 86 grabs for 1,333 yards and nine scores.

Also on the bright side, Brady is going to work with a “quarterback guru” in Bucs head coach Bruce Arians. Winston did lead the NFL in TD passes last season and was second in TD throws under Arians. The coach also helped get the best out of future Hall of Famers (like Brady) in Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. Arians also rejuvenated Carson Palmer’s career with the Cardinals. Another plus: Brady won’t have to worry about the winter-type elements of playing outdoors in November/December in Tampa like he did in the Boston area.

Tom Brady

Total Touchdown Passes - Regular Season
  • Over -120 +30
  • Under -120 +30

On the negative side, Arians’ offense is built around deep downfield passing, and if you watched the Patriots last year Brady’s arm strength simply isn’t close to what it was. He averaged just 6.6 yards per attempt (to be fair, some of that was the offensive system with the Pats). The Bucs also don’t have a great running game to help Brady. They were tied to Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon this offseason, but Gurley signed with the division-rival Falcons and Gordon with the Broncos.

Brady hasn’t missed a game since 2016 when he was suspended the first four for Deflategate. If we throw out that season, he has topped that 4,200.5 number seven times since 2008, the year he was lost Week 1 to a season-ending injury. Brady has topped 30.5 TD passes six times since then. He went under both a year ago, throwing for 4,057 yards and 24 scores.

That’s one risk betting over on either prop brings: Injury. If Brady misses even one game, he’s that much less likely to surpass either. What if the Bucs hold him out of a meaningless Week 17 game with a playoff berth already clinched, for example?

NFL Predictions

Tom Brady goes under 4,200.5 passing yards and under 30.5 TDs in his first season with the Buccaneers.

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