Betting With Bastl: Expect a Cheese Fest on Monday Night

David Bastl | Updated Sep 30, 2020

Aaron Rodgers, Packers, 2020

The Packers are the first team in NFL history with 35+ points and zero turnovers in each of their first three games of the season. The host the Falcons on Monday night.

Disaster would be a nice way of describing the Atlanta Falcons this season to date. Entering the upcoming Monday nighter in Green Bay, Atlanta has managed to build up massive leads, only to watch them blow up in their faces in dramatic style.

First off in Dallas two weeks ago where they made history by becoming the first NFL team to score at least 39 points with no turnovers and lose the game. Prior to the Falcons blunder in the Big D, teams were 440-0 with those numbers; the Falcons turned that into 440 and 1. Then, last week they dropped a 4th quarter lead, home to the Bears. The Falcons are the first team in NFL history to lose twice in one season while holding a 15+ point lead in the 4th quarter. Dreadful stuff.

The Packers are the first team in NFL history with 35+ points and zero turnovers in each of their first three games of the season. It is also the first time in franchise history that Green Bay did not commit a turnover in the first three games of the season.

Surprisingly, this number was under a touchdown at the beginning of the week, and now sits at a converted touchdown and likely not coming down. Lesson learned, if you like a number early in the week, buy it, it won’t stay there for long.

Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers (Monday, Oct 5 2020 8:25pm)

  • Atlanta Falcons -110 +5
  • Green Bay Packers -110 -5

NFL Week 4 Betting Two-minute Drill:

The stat may scare some, but it doesn’t scare me; the Falcons are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games in Green Bay. However, the last time these two teams played at Lambeau Field, the Packers hammered the Falcons 34-20 (December 9, 2018. Dating back to the 2008 season, the Pack are 3-0 at home (straight up) at home versus the Falcons.

Currently at Sports Interaction the total on the board is listed at 58. Dare I say it could go over? These two teams have been offensive power houses through the first three weeks of the season. The Packers are averaging 40.7 points per game which is tops in the NFL, while the Falcons have averaged 30 points per game, which is sixth best in the league. Of note, over the past 18 seasons, just five NFL games have closed with an over/under higher than 58.

Bastl’s Bets: Packers -7

Overtime Predictions:

At 3-0, the Titans are a solid NFL team; in the betting world, maybe the opposite. With three weeks in the books, the Titans are a perfect 0-3 against the spread. They face a Steelers team that is also 3-0 and are 10-3-1 (ATS) versus the AFC South Division. (Note: The NFL announced that this game will be rescheduled)

The Bills haven’t had much success when travelling west. Since the 2010 season, they have won only one game in seven tries. The Raiders opened up their new stadium in week two and hammered the visiting Saints. Sign me up for Las Vegas as the home underdog.

Bastl’s Bets: Steelers +1.5, Raiders +3