2024 NFL Conference Championship Player Props and Predictions: Lamar Jackson, David Montgomery highlight top picks
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AFC Championship Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson will win his second career regular season MVP this year, but it’s his performance in the playoffs that will secure his legacy. Any notion that Baltimore’s bye would leave Jackson rusty last week in the divisional round was put to bed quickly as he finished the day with four total TDs and 100 rushing yards.
Jackson has averaged 93.4 rushing yards per game across five career playoff outings and he’s hit the 100-yard rushing mark in three of his last four postseason games. We like Jackson to continue to roll in the AFC Championship game as he’s facing a Chiefs defence that allowed the 10th-most rushing yards per game (20.1) to opposing quarterbacks in the regular season.
AFC Championship Game Prediction: Lamar Jackson Over 63.5 rushing yards (-120)
Odds below are live. Pick above is based on odds at time of writing.
Travis Kelce came up big last week, racking up 75 yards and two TDs on five receptions. He has averaged exactly five receptions per game across his last five games and we expect him to stick to that number in the AFC Championship game.
Kelce has only recorded more than five receptions twice in his last seven games and he’s going up against a Ravens defence that has allowed an average of just 4.7 catches per game this year to tight ends. Sorry Swifties, we’ll take plus-money on the Under for Kelce receptions all day.
AFC Championship Game Prediction: Travis Swift Under 5.5 receptions (+105)
Odds below are live. Pick above is based on odds at time of writing.
NFC Championship Game: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
With Deebo Samuel’s status up in the air because of a shoulder injury, this could be a big week for Brandon Aiyuk, who should be San Francisco’s primary receiving target on Sunday. Aiyuk finished with 100-plus receiving yards seven times during the regular season, with three of those games coming against playoff teams (Steelers, Bucs, Ravens), and he’ll be up against a Lions defence that has allowed an average of 189 yards and 13.7 catches per game this year to opposing wideouts.
Christian McCaffrey should draw Detroit’s focus, so Aiyuk will have time and space even if Samuel doesn’t play. And Brock Purdy has worked well with Aiyuk in past games that Samuel has missed. In fact, Aiyuk has finished with 80-plus receiving yards in three of the last four games Samuel missed.
NFC Championship Game Prediction: Brandon Aiyuk Over 80.5 receiving yards (-120)
Odds below are live. Pick above is based on odds at time of writing.
Bank on a bounce-back game for David Montgomery this week. Montgomery didn’t hit his rushing total against Tampa Bay last week, but keep in mind the Bucs’ defence ranked third in opponent yards per carry (3.8) in the regular season, while San Francisco ranked 15th (4.2).
Detroit has the fifth best rushing offence in the NFL, averaging 4.5 yards per carry and All-Pro selections Penei Sewell and Frank Ragnow will clear a lot of open lanes for Montgomery. Remember, despite an off-week in the divisional round, Montgomery is still the player who rushed for 44-plus yards in 13 of 16 games this season.
NFC Championship Game Prediction: David Montgomery Over 43.5 rushing yards (-115)
Odds below are live. Pick above is based on odds at time of writing.
