The Buckeyes are priced as 7.5-point favourites on the NCAAF odds and a total of 45.5.

CFP Point Spread and Betting Analysis

One great thing about the new CFP format is all four first-round games are on college campuses, and that opens up the possibility of outdoor cold-weather games in the playoff for the first time (most bowls are either indoors or in warm-weather locales as well). The forecast for Saturday night in Columbus, Ohio is a low of 17 degrees (Fahrenheit) but it’s not likely to snow, which is a bummer.

It’s a shame these two powers are facing off in Round 1 because both are more than capable of winning the national championship with Ohio State priced +500 and Tennessee +2500. But the winner will be an underdog on New Year’s Day in the Rose Bowl against No. 1 Oregon, the Big Ten champion and nation’s only unbeaten team. OSU lost at Oregon by a point earlier this season. Frankly, the Ducks got hosed by the draw having to face one of these two in the quarterfinals. 

Interestingly, that an at-large team like these two wins the national championship is -185, while that a conference champion does is +150. It’s just the second meeting between Ohio State and Tennessee after the 1995 Citrus Bowl. 

Tennessee Volunteers

Rather amazingly, this marks Tennessee’s first-ever road game against a Big Ten opponent – Big Ten and SEC schools generally avoid each other in the regular season. The Vols will be looking to snap a 21-game road losing streak against AP Top 10 opponents (OSU is No. 6 in the AP poll) with its last such win in 2006 vs. Georgia. The Vols have a likely 2025 Heisman favourite in young QB Nico Iamaleava, the first UT quarterback win 10 regular-season games since in 2003. Tailback Dylan Sampson will be a 2025 candidate as well if he doesn’t turn pro. His 1,485 rush yards lead the SEC, and his 22 rushing scores and 132 total points scored are school records.

The Vols are tremendous defensively as well, allowing just 13.9 PPG, fourth in the FBS and the school’s fewest this century. Tennessee allowed more than 20 points in just two games. Its only losses were at Arkansas and Georgia and it went 2-2 in true road games, compared to 8-0 at home/neutral site. 

Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State is hosting an SEC team for the first time since 1988 (vs. LSU) and looking to avoid back-to-back home losses for the first time since 1990. It’s the first-ever game played at Ohio Stadium in the month of December. I’m not saying that Buckeyes fans would prefer to beat Michigan in a given season than win the national title … but they might. Thus, I’m fascinated to see how OSU responds after getting stunned 13-10 at home in its regular-season finale as a 21-point favourite against the unranked and previously struggling Wolverines, who won their fourth straight in the series. It ended the Buckeyes’ 13-game home winning streak. That cost Ohio State a spot in the Big Ten title game and a possible first-round bye as conference champion. Some thought that might mean the end for Coach Ryan Day, but school leadership already has announced he will return. I’m not so sure about that if the Buckeyes lose again here.

OSU leads the nation in scoring defence at 10.9 PPG. The only team to top 17 points against that unit was No. 1 Oregon. Meanwhile, QB Will Howard’s 172.1 pass efficiency rating is third in the nation and his 72.3% completions fourth. The Buckeyes are 3-4 all-time in College Football Playoff games (1-2 under Day) and have dropped their past two.

CFP Prediction: Who Will Win Tennessee vs. Ohio State?

Ohio State 24, Tennessee 20