Michigan vs. Florida State Orange Bowl: College Football Spread

Ricky Rothstein | Updated Dec 21, 2016

jabrill pepper michigan state

The first of the New Year’s Six bowls this NCAA football postseason is a dandy as No. 6 Michigan faces No. 11 Florida State in the Orange Bowl from Miami on the night of Dec. 30. It’s the last of five bowl games that Friday. Both the Wolverines and Seminoles were among the preseason favourites to play in this year’s College Football Playoff and both will be again for next year with a lot of talent returning. Check out our complete College Football Bowl schedule here.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Florida State Seminoles

Point spread: Wolverines -6.5

Over/under: 52.5/p>

Date: Friday, Dec. 30, 8 p.m. ET

Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami

Michigan Wolverines

Coach Jim Harbaugh’s team is 10-2 and just a few points from being unbeaten and in the national semifinals. The Wolverines lost 14-13 at Iowa on Nov. 12 on a 33-yard field goal as time expired. The Hawkeyes likely wouldn’t have been in position for that kick if not for a facemask penalty on Michigan.

Then in arguably the game of the year in college football on Nov. 26, No. 3 Michigan lost 30-27 at No. 2 Ohio State in double overtime — a game the Wolverines frankly deserved to win. OSU got a very questionable spot call on a fourth-and-1 in the second overtime and scored the winning touchdown on the next play. It was the first game in the history of arguably the sport’s best rivalry to go to overtime. Harbaugh is now 0-2 against the Buckeyes and you can forget about any rumours of him taking the Los Angeles Rams NFL job. He’s not leaving his alma mater after just two seasons.

Michigan, which beat the two teams that played in the Big Ten Championship Game (Wisconsin and Penn State), expects all its top-level draft picks will participate in the Orange Bowl. A few star players around the country have decided to pass on their bowl games to prepare for the NFL draft. UM has a superstar talent in defensive back/running back/return man Jabrill Peppers, who was a Heisman finalist. He’s turning pro early and should be a Top-5 pick in April. He was named an All-American along with cornerback Jourdain Lewis, who also will be playing in the NFL in 2017.

Led by Peppers, the Wolverines have one of the nation’s top defenses. It leads the FBS in pass defense, tackles for loss and third-down defense. Michigan is second nationally scoring defense (12.5 ppg), total defense, pass efficiency, sacks, red zone defense and first downs allowed. UM is 6-6 against the spread this season.

Florida State Seminoles

FSU (9-3) was the No. 4 team in the preseason polls and brought back every single offensive starter from its 2015 team, although that quarterback, Sean Maguire, wouldn’t return to the starting role as highly-touted redshirt freshman Deondre Francois won the job. Francois threw for 3,129 yards and 18 TDs and rushed for four scores.

The national title hopes of the Seminoles were all but gone by mid-September when FSU was embarrassed 63-20 at No. 10 Louisville in one of the worst defeats in school history and by any Top-5 team. That’s when the world really found out who Cardinals QB Lamar Jackson was. Of course he went on to win the Heisman. FSU also lost a last-second heartbreaker to North Carolina and a 37-34 shootout to No. 3 Clemson in late October. The Seminoles led that Clemson game 34-29 late.

There had been rumours that FSU coach Jimbo Fisher was interested in the LSU opening as he used to be an assistant there, but he stayed put and got a new extension. Fisher of course led FSU to the national championship in the final season of the BCS system.

This will be the final game for Florida State star running back Dalvin Cook, the school’s all-time leading rusher, as he will turn pro. He rushed for 1,620 yards and 18 touchdowns this year and was a unanimous All-American. He needs 72 yards to break the FSU single-season rushing record of 1,691, which he set last year. Cook’s 4,319 career rushing yards rank third in ACC history.

FSU is 4-2 in bowl games under Fisher and 5-0 in Hard Rock Stadium under him, including a close win over the University of Miami in October. The Seminoles are 7-4 ATS this season.

Orange Bowl Prediction

Michigan and Florida State have only played twice and not since 1991. The Seminoles are 9-2 all-time against Big Ten schools (at the time of the game) but haven’t played one since 2008. FSU’s offense is more explosive, while UM’s defense is superior. These are two of the best coaches in the sport, and I would argue this is the best bowl matchup outside the semifinals. Take FSU at +7.5 on the alternate line (-133) and go over the total.

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