2022 Sugar Bowl: Alabama (5) vs. Kansas State (9) Odds, Prediction

Daniel Coyle | Updated Dec 29, 2022

The Kansas State Wildcats will be aiming to close out 2022 with a fifth straight victory when they battle the Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday in this year’s edition of the Sugar Bowl.

December 31, 2022, 12:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Pointspread -7.5 -113
Moneyline -286
Over / Under o +58


Betting Action


Pointspread +7.5 -107
Moneyline +236
Over / Under u +58


Betting Action


The Wildcats closed out their schedule at No. 9 on the College Football Playoff rankings after claiming the Big 12 title with a 31-28 overtime win in this year’s conference championship game. The Crimson Tide closed out their schedule with three straight wins, capped by decisive 49-27 win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl.

The Crimson Tide look to Saturday’s contest perched as 6.5-point favourites on the NCAAF odds, while the total is pegged at 56.0.

2022 Sugar Bowl Betting Analysis

Saturday afternoon’s matchup at Caesars Superdome marks the first ever meeting between these teams, and the Wildcats’ first-ever appearance in the Sugar Bowl. Kansas State has claimed victory in three of its past four bowl game appearances, capped by a decisive 42-20 win over LSU in last season’s Texas Bowl.

Alabama has made a bowl game appearance every season since 2004, and advanced to the CFP national championship game last season for the sixth time in seven years. Overall, the Tide have won 10 of 13 in bowl game action, with each of their past five victories coming by double-digit margins. However, they have produced a disappoint 2-4 record in six Sugar Bowl appearances since 1990, and have also covered just three times in their past eight bowl games.

Alabama Crimson Tide (5)

The Crimson Tide finished their regular season on a steady run, earning them serious consideration for a return trip to the College Football Playoff. However, upset road losses to Tennessee and LSU ultimately came back to haunt the Crimson Tide, who closed out the campaign at No. 5 in the rankings and out of CFP contention.

Despite that disappointment, the Tide remain a formidable force. The Tide offence ranked fourth in the nation this season with 40.8 points scored per game, and proved equally stingy on defence, surrendering just 18.0 points per game. However, despite those impressive numbers, the Crimson Tide managed to reward loyal sports bettors with just one against the spread over their final seven outings, with four of those contests getting settled by just a single score.

Quarterback Bryce Young has enjoyed a steady junior year, tossing for 27 touchdowns against just five picks. However, he will be working with a receiving corps depleted by opt-outs, most notably Traeshon Holden, who has entered the transfer portal after making six scoring catches this season, including two in the past three games.

Kansas State Wildcats (9)

After posting losing records in conference play in three of the past four seasons, the Wildcats finally reached the mountaintop this season with their first Big 12 title since 2012. Indeed, this team seemed to get better as this season’s schedule progressed, reaching a high note with their season-ending 4-0 run. K-State consistently silenced naysayers throughout the season, posting outright wins in three of five outings as betting underdogs, and rose to the occasions with wins in three of five dates with nationally ranked opponents, with each of those victories coming against opponents among the Top 10.

While no Wildcats players have opted out of Saturday’s contest, the team is contending with a developing quarterback controversy. Will Howard has enjoyed a breakthrough season since taking over the reins of the offence in the wake of an injury to starter Adrian Martinez in Week 8. Howard has tossed for 5 touchdowns in six appearances since, including a 199-yard, two-TD performance in the Big 12 championship game. The junior has seen a dip in accuracy in his past two outings, connecting on just 54.7 per cent of pass attempts. And with Martinez now healthy and traveling with the team, Howard is likely to be on a short leash in Saturday’s contest.

However, Howard has developed intriguing chemistry with tight end Ben Sinnott, who has pulled in four scoring catches over the past four games, and will likely play a key role in the Wildcats’ bid for yet another upset win.

Sugar Bowl Prediction: Who Will Win Alabama vs. Kansas State?