There are plenty around college football who are howling that Alabama is even in the College Football Playoff considering the Tide didn’t even win their own SEC West Division thanks to a 26-14 loss at Auburn in the regular-season finale. If it wasn’t “Alabama,” the Tide probably don’t squeak in. It should be noted, however, that Ohio State got in the playoff last season the same way. The Buckeyes proved they weren’t worthy, getting trounced in the semifinals by Clemson. Bama is the only team to reach the playoff in all four years. It’s the third straight year in the playoff for ACC champion Clemson.

Alabama vs. Clemson Spread and Betting Analysis

I’m sure I don’t need to remind readers that these teams played in the past two national championship games, both epic shootouts and both Clemson covers. Following the 2015 season, Alabama won 45-40 as a 6.5-point favourite to win its fourth national title under Nick Saban. That game turned when Saban called for an onside kick with just over 10 minutes remaining and the game tied 24-24. It worked and momentum changed. Tigers quarterback Deshaun Watson was magnificent in the loss, throwing for 405 yards and four scores and rushing for 73 yards.

This past January, Clemson was a 6.5-point dog again and won one of the great games in NCAA history, 35-31. Watson threw a 2-yard touchdown pass with 1 second left for Clemson’s first title since 1981. He threw for 420 yards overall and three scores and rushed for 43 yards and a touchdown.

There are two major differences from those games and this one: Watson is no longer at Clemson and both coaches had about a month to prepare instead of just over a week.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Some bettors might be asking how the No. 4 Crimson Tide (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS) could be favoured here considering the past two Clemson games and that losing ATS record in 2017. Well, Bama has opened as a betting underdog just once this decade and is the most “public” team in the sport. For the third year in a row, Saban has to deal with a coordinator having taken another job ahead of the playoff. In 2015, it was defensive coordinator Kirby Smart, now at Georgia. Last year, it was offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin, now at FAU. Saban let Kiffin coach the semifinal game but replaced him for the title matchup.

Alabama again had one of the country’s best defences but showed some cracks late in a close win at Mississippi State and the loss to Auburn. That unit is beaten up, with linebackers Dylan Moses and Shaun Dion Hamilton and safety Hootie Jones all out for this game.

Clemson Tigers

Clemson (12-1 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) has basically become the Alabama of the ACC, not a shock considering the Tigers coach is Dabo Swinney, an Alabama native and former football walk-on at the school. Many believe the only job he would leave Clemson for would be Alabama if Saban ever retires. This was expected to be a slight rebuilding season for the Tigers after losing Watson and several other key players off last year’s team. Yet other than a trap-game loss at Syracuse on Oct. 13, Clemson hasn’t missed a beat. It enters on a six-game winning streak and slaughtered then-No. 7 Miami 38-3 in the ACC title game.

Kelly Bryant is no Watson but has filled in well, throwing for 2,678 yards and 13 scores while rushing for 646 yards and 11 TDs. Mobile quarterbacks have historically given Alabama fits. Clemson played a tougher schedule this year and beat the Auburn team that beat the Tide. It also should be noted Clemson has covered seven straight as a dog. It will again.

Injuries

Alabama

Minkah Fitzpatrick (DB)

Prob Mon Kidney - 06 / 01 / 18

Joshua Jacobs (RB)

Prob Mon Hamstring - 04 / 01 / 18

Lester Cotton Sr. (OL)

Out Mon Knee - 02 / 01 / 18

Anfernee Jennings (LB)

Out Mon Knee - 02 / 01 / 18

Hootie Jones (DB)

Ques Mon Knee - 02 / 01 / 18

Anthony Averett (DB)

Prob Mon Ankle - 01 / 01 / 18

Deionte Thompson (DB)

Prob Mon Knee - 20 / 12 / 17

Nigel Knott (DB)

Ques Mon Undisclosed - 19 / 12 / 17

Dylan Moses (LB)

Out indefinitely Foot - 19 / 12 / 17

Terrell Lewis (LB)

Ques Sat Elbow - 25 / 11 / 17

Clemson

Tee Higgins (WR)

day-to-day Leg - 01 / 01 / 18

Judah Davis (LB)

out for season Knee - 13 / 12 / 17

J.D. Davis (LB)

Prob Sat Knee - 26 / 11 / 17

Travis Etienne (RB)

Prob Sat Leg - 26 / 11 / 17

Chad Smith (LB)

Ques Mon Calf - 26 / 11 / 17

Tre Lamar (LB)

Ques Mon Shoulder - 21 / 11 / 17

Mitch Hyatt (T)

Ques Sat Undisclosed - 19 / 11 / 17

Kendall Joseph (LB)

Ques Sat Leg - 12 / 11 / 17

Dexter Lawrence (DT)

Ques Sat Foot - 12 / 11 / 17

Tanner Muse (S)

Prob Sat Hand - 01 / 11 / 17

Injuries

Alabama

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Minkah Fitzpatrick (DB)	Prob Mon	Kidney - 06 / 01 / 18	1-0	0-1	+ -
Fitzpatrick has a bruised kidney but is expected to suit up against Georgia in the national championship game.
Joshua Jacobs (RB)	Prob Mon	Hamstring - 04 / 01 / 18	1-0	0-1	+ -
Jacobs is bothered by a hamstring injury but is expected to play in the national championship game against Georgia.
Lester Cotton Sr. (OL)	Out Mon	Knee - 02 / 01 / 18	1-1	0-2	+ -
Cotton Sr. suffered a knee injury and will not be available for the national championship game against Georgia.
Anfernee Jennings (LB)	Out Mon	Knee - 02 / 01 / 18	1-1	0-2	+ -
Jennings had surgery on his knee and will not be available for the national championship game against Georgia.
Hootie Jones (DB)	Ques Mon	Knee - 02 / 01 / 18	1-1	0-2	+ -
Jones is dealing with a knee injury, leaving his availability for the national championship game against Georgia in question.
Anthony Averett (DB)	Prob Mon	Ankle - 01 / 01 / 18	1-1	0-2	+ -
Averett is expected to play in the Allstate Sugar Bowl despite a rolled ankle.
Deionte Thompson (DB)	Prob Mon	Knee - 20 / 12 / 17	1-1	0-2	+ -
Thompson is dealing with a bruised knee but is expected to suit up for the Allstate Sugar Bowl against Clemson.
Nigel Knott (DB)	Ques Mon	Undisclosed - 19 / 12 / 17	1-1	0-2	+ -
Knott sat out the last game with an unspecified issue and his status for the national championship game against Georgia is in question.
Dylan Moses (LB)	Out indefinitely	Foot - 19 / 12 / 17	1-1	0-2	+ -
Moses suffered a foot injury and it is unclear as to how long he will be out.
Terrell Lewis (LB)	Ques Sat	Elbow - 25 / 11 / 17	2-2	1-3	+ -
Lewis is dealing with an elbow injury and his status is uncertain for Saturday's game against Auburn.

Clemson

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Tee Higgins (WR)	day-to-day	Leg - 01 / 01 / 18	1-0	0-1	+ -
Higgins departed Monday's game due to a right leg injury and it is uncertain if he will return.
Judah Davis (LB)	out for season	Knee - 13 / 12 / 17	1-0	0-1	+ -
Davis will miss the remainder of the season due to a knee injury.
J.D. Davis (LB)	Prob Sat	Knee - 26 / 11 / 17	3-0	1-2	+ -
Davis is dealing with a knee injury but is likely to play Saturday against Miami.
Travis Etienne (RB)	Prob Sat	Leg - 26 / 11 / 17	3-0	1-2	+ -
Etienne is nursing a leg injury but will likely suit up Saturday against Miami.
Chad Smith (LB)	Ques Mon	Calf - 26 / 11 / 17	3-0	1-2	+ -
Smith missed the previous game with a calf injury and it is unclear if he will play in the Allstate Sugar Bowl against Alabama.
Tre Lamar (LB)	Ques Mon	Shoulder - 21 / 11 / 17	3-0	1-2	+ -
Lamar missed the last game with a shoulder injury and it is unclear if he will play in the Allstate Sugar Bowl against Alabama.
Mitch Hyatt (T)	Ques Sat	Undisclosed - 19 / 11 / 17	3-0	1-2	+ -
Hyatt has an undefined injury and it is unclear if he will play against South Carolina on Saturday.
Kendall Joseph (LB)	Ques Sat	Leg - 12 / 11 / 17	4-0	1-2-1	+ -
Joseph missed the last game dealing with a leg injury and it is unclear if he will suit up Saturday against South Carolina.
Dexter Lawrence (DT)	Ques Sat	Foot - 12 / 11 / 17	4-0	1-2-1	+ -
Lawrence missed the last game with a foot injury and his status for Saturday's contest against South Carolina is undecided.
Tanner Muse (S)	Prob Sat	Hand - 01 / 11 / 17	4-1	2-3-1	+ -
Muse is expected to play Saturday against NC State despite breaking a bone in his hand during the last game.

Sugar Bowl Prediction