Allstate Sugar Bowl Prediction: Baylor vs. Ole Miss Odds

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Dec 29, 2021

Ole Miss will look to cap off the first 10-win season in school history with a win in the Sugar Bowl when they face Baylor on New Year's Day.

January 01, 2022, 8:45 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Pointspread +1 -105
Moneyline +101
Over / Under o +60.5


Betting Action


Pointspread -1 -115
Moneyline -122
Over / Under u +60.5


Betting Action


The end of the college football season continues with the 2022 Sugar Bowl at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans on New Year’s Day.  Among the oldest bowl games in college football, the 2022 edition will see No. 6 Baylor of the Big 12 take on No. 8 Ole Miss of the SEC.

The Rebels are 1.5-point favourites to win on the college football odds, with a total of 55.5.

Allstate Sugar Bowl Betting Analysis

Coming in as an underdog has suited Baylor just fine this season.  The Bears went 4-1 straight up and 4-1 against the spread when not favoured in 2021.  They’re also comfortable in close games, going 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in games decided by seven points or less.  They finished with an 11-2 record overall, including seven wins in their last eight games, en route to a Big 12 championship title.  The total went Under in five of Baylor’s last six games overall and six of their last seven as an underdog.

Ole Miss is no stranger to bowl games, winning eight of their last nine appearances and 12 of 14.  The Rebels finished 2021 with a 10-2 record overall, going 7-4-1 ATS.  They were favoured in all but one game this year, going 9-2 SU.  With this line hovering around a pick’em, there’s a possibility the spread shifts to make Ole Miss an underdog by Saturday.  Keeping that in mind, it’s worth noting the Rebels are just 4-5 SU as an underdog since 2020.  The total went Under in Ole Miss’ last seven games.

There’s almost no history between these teams, with their lone meeting ending in a 20-10 win for Baylor in 1975.

Baylor Bears

Baylor coach Dave Aranda put the quarterback speculation to rest on Monday when he announced Gerry Bohanon as his starter for the Sugar Bowl, as Blake Shapen is dealing with a shoulder injury.  Bohanon, a redshirt junior, started the first 11 games of the season for Baylor, completing 64.3 per cent of his passes for 2,165 yards, 17 TDs and six interceptions before a hamstring injury took him out of the lineup.  He also rushed for 303 yards and nine TDs.  Shapen, a redshirt freshman, started the last two games, completing 69 per cent of his throws for 434 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions, leading the Bears over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game.

The run-game will also be a big part of Baylor’s attack.  The Bears are averaging almost 215 rushing yards per game, which should translate to a distinct advantage over an Ole Miss team that gave up more than 200 rushing yards six times this season.  Running backs Abram Smith (1,429 yards, 12 TDs) and Trestan Ebner (763 yards, 2 TDs) will lead the rushing attack.

Defensively, Baylor held opponents to just 19.2 points per game and led the Big 12 with 16 interceptions.  Safety Jalen Pitre anchored the defence all season, picking up 70 total tackles, 2.5 sacks and two interceptions.  Pitre was a consensus first-team All-American and the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year.

Mississippi Rebels

In only his second year in charge, Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin led the Rebels to their first double-digit winning season in school history.  Kiffin and dual threat quarterback Matt Corral led a dynamic offence that averaged 506.7 offensive yards per game, fourth-most in the nation.  Corral passed for 3,339 yards and 20 TDs with just four INTs.  He also added 597 rushing yards and another 11 TDs on the ground.  Over his last four games, Corral’s completion percentage jumped to 72.4 per cent and with over a month off between games, his nagging ankle injury should be fully healed.

There was a significant improvement on defence in Year 2 under Kiffin.  After giving up nearly 40 points per game last season, the Rebels averaged 25.0 points-against in 2021 and held five of their last six opponents to under 22 points.

College Football Prediction: Who Will Win Baylor vs. Mississippi?