The end of the college football season continues with the 2022 Sugar Bowl at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans on New Year’s Day.  Among the oldest bowl games in college football, the 2022 edition will see No. 6 Baylor of the Big 12 take on No. 8 Ole Miss of the SEC.

The Rebels are 1.5-point favourites to win on the college football odds, with a total of 55.5.

Allstate Sugar Bowl Betting Analysis

Coming in as an underdog has suited Baylor just fine this season.  The Bears went 4-1 straight up and 4-1 against the spread when not favoured in 2021.  They’re also comfortable in close games, going 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in games decided by seven points or less.  They finished with an 11-2 record overall, including seven wins in their last eight games, en route to a Big 12 championship title.  The total went Under in five of Baylor’s last six games overall and six of their last seven as an underdog.

Ole Miss is no stranger to bowl games, winning eight of their last nine appearances and 12 of 14.  The Rebels finished 2021 with a 10-2 record overall, going 7-4-1 ATS.  They were favoured in all but one game this year, going 9-2 SU.  With this line hovering around a pick’em, there’s a possibility the spread shifts to make Ole Miss an underdog by Saturday.  Keeping that in mind, it’s worth noting the Rebels are just 4-5 SU as an underdog since 2020.  The total went Under in Ole Miss’ last seven games.

There’s almost no history between these teams, with their lone meeting ending in a 20-10 win for Baylor in 1975.

Baylor Bears

Baylor coach Dave Aranda put the quarterback speculation to rest on Monday when he announced Gerry Bohanon as his starter for the Sugar Bowl, as Blake Shapen is dealing with a shoulder injury.  Bohanon, a redshirt junior, started the first 11 games of the season for Baylor, completing 64.3 per cent of his passes for 2,165 yards, 17 TDs and six interceptions before a hamstring injury took him out of the lineup.  He also rushed for 303 yards and nine TDs.  Shapen, a redshirt freshman, started the last two games, completing 69 per cent of his throws for 434 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions, leading the Bears over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game.

The run-game will also be a big part of Baylor’s attack.  The Bears are averaging almost 215 rushing yards per game, which should translate to a distinct advantage over an Ole Miss team that gave up more than 200 rushing yards six times this season.  Running backs Abram Smith (1,429 yards, 12 TDs) and Trestan Ebner (763 yards, 2 TDs) will lead the rushing attack.

Defensively, Baylor held opponents to just 19.2 points per game and led the Big 12 with 16 interceptions.  Safety Jalen Pitre anchored the defence all season, picking up 70 total tackles, 2.5 sacks and two interceptions.  Pitre was a consensus first-team All-American and the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year.

Mississippi Rebels

In only his second year in charge, Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin led the Rebels to their first double-digit winning season in school history.  Kiffin and dual threat quarterback Matt Corral led a dynamic offence that averaged 506.7 offensive yards per game, fourth-most in the nation.  Corral passed for 3,339 yards and 20 TDs with just four INTs.  He also added 597 rushing yards and another 11 TDs on the ground.  Over his last four games, Corral’s completion percentage jumped to 72.4 per cent and with over a month off between games, his nagging ankle injury should be fully healed.

There was a significant improvement on defence in Year 2 under Kiffin.  After giving up nearly 40 points per game last season, the Rebels averaged 25.0 points-against in 2021 and held five of their last six opponents to under 22 points.

College Football Prediction: Who Will Win Baylor vs. Mississippi?

• Regular Season
• Playoffs

Bears Team Leaders

BAY

Touchdowns	Abram Smith 12
Rushing	Abram Smith 1429
Passing	Gerry Bohanon 2160
Receiving	Tyquan Thornton 61
Sacks	Terrel Bernard 5.5
Interceptions	JT Woods 3

MISS

Touchdowns	Snoop Conner 13
Rushing	Jerrion Ealy 703
Passing	Matt Corral 3339
Receiving	Dontario Drummond 67
Sacks	Sam Williams 12.5
Interceptions	A.J. Finley 3

BAY

Touchdowns	Monaray Baldwin 1
Rushing	Abram Smith 172
Passing	Gerry Bohanon 40
Receiving	R.J. Sneed 2
Sacks	Bryson Jackson 2
Interceptions	JT Woods 2

MISS

Touchdowns	Braylon Sanders 1
Rushing	Jerrion Ealy 65
Passing	Luke Altmyer 174
Receiving	Dontario Drummond 9
Sacks	Luke Altmyer 0
Interceptions	Miles Battle 1

• Regular Season
• Playoffs

Rebels Team Leaders

BAY

Touchdowns	Abram Smith 12
Rushing	Abram Smith 1429
Passing	Gerry Bohanon 2160
Receiving	Tyquan Thornton 61
Sacks	Terrel Bernard 5.5
Interceptions	JT Woods 3

MISS

Touchdowns	Snoop Conner 13
Rushing	Jerrion Ealy 703
Passing	Matt Corral 3339
Receiving	Dontario Drummond 67
Sacks	Sam Williams 12.5
Interceptions	A.J. Finley 3

BAY

Touchdowns	Monaray Baldwin 1
Rushing	Abram Smith 172
Passing	Gerry Bohanon 40
Receiving	R.J. Sneed 2
Sacks	Bryson Jackson 2
Interceptions	JT Woods 2

MISS

Touchdowns	Braylon Sanders 1
Rushing	Jerrion Ealy 65
Passing	Luke Altmyer 174
Receiving	Dontario Drummond 9
Sacks	Luke Altmyer 0
Interceptions	Miles Battle 1

Injuries

Baylor

Blake Shapen (QB)

Doub Sat Shoulder - 27 / 12 / 21

Gerry Bohanon (QB)

Prob Sat Hamstring - 21 / 11 / 21

Kalon Barnes (CB)

Ques Sat Leg - 04 / 10 / 21

Terrel Bernard (LB)

Ques Sat Knee - 27 / 09 / 21

Craig Williams (RB)

Ques Sat Knee - 17 / 08 / 21

Mississippi

Matt Corral (QB)

Ques Sat Leg - 01 / 01 / 22

Caden Costa (K)

Ques Sat Undisclosed - 25 / 11 / 21

Sam Williams (DL)

Ques Sat Hip - 07 / 11 / 21

Matt Corral (QB)

Prob Sat Ankle - 31 / 10 / 21

Dontario Drummond (WR)

Ques Sat Undisclosed - 30 / 10 / 21

Matt Corral (QB)

Prob Sat Undisclosed - 18 / 10 / 21

Braylon Sanders (WR)

Prob Sat Lower Body - 17 / 10 / 21

Jerrion Ealy (RB)

Ques Sat Concussion - 07 / 10 / 21

Caleb Warren (OL)

Prob Sat Ankle - 07 / 10 / 21

Jonathan Mingo (WR)

Out indefinitely Foot - 02 / 10 / 21

Injuries

Baylor

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Blake Shapen (QB)	Doub Sat	Shoulder - 27 / 12 / 21	1-0	0-1	+ -
Shapen is not projected to take the field for the Sugar Bowl versus Ole Miss due to a shoulder injury.
Gerry Bohanon (QB)	Prob Sat	Hamstring - 21 / 11 / 21	2-1	0-3	+ -
Bohanon is dealing with a hamstring injury, and it is not expected to affect his status against Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl.
Kalon Barnes (CB)	Ques Sat	Leg - 04 / 10 / 21	6-3	3-6	+ -
No detailed notes found.
Terrel Bernard (LB)	Ques Sat	Knee - 27 / 09 / 21	7-3	4-6	+ -
Bernard was absent from the previous contest with a knee injury, and it has yet to be established if he will suit up Saturday versus West Virginia.
Craig Williams (RB)	Ques Sat	Knee - 17 / 08 / 21	-	-	+ -
Williams has missed the previous two games due to a knee injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Kansas on Saturday.

Mississippi

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Matt Corral (QB)	Ques Sat	Leg - 01 / 01 / 22	1-0	0-1	+ -
Corral exited the game against Baylor on Saturday with a leg injury, and it is unknown if he will return.
Caden Costa (K)	Ques Sat	Undisclosed - 25 / 11 / 21	1-1	0-2	+ -
Costa is dealing with an unknown injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up for the Sugar Bowl versus Baylor.
Sam Williams (DL)	Ques Sat	Hip - 07 / 11 / 21	3-1	0-4	+ -
Williams exited the last game with a hip injury, and it remains to be seen if he will play in Saturday's matchup with Texas A&M.
Matt Corral (QB)	Prob Sat	Ankle - 31 / 10 / 21	3-2	0-5	+ -
Corral exited the last contest with an ankle injury, but it is not likely to affect his availability for Saturday's matchup with Liberty.
Dontario Drummond (WR)	Ques Sat	Undisclosed - 30 / 10 / 21	4-2	0-6	+ -
Drummond missed the last game due to an undefined injury, and it is uncertain if he will be in the lineup against Texas A&M on Saturday.
Matt Corral (QB)	Prob Sat	Undisclosed - 18 / 10 / 21	5-2	0-7	+ -
Corral is nursing an undefined injury, but it is expected that he will take on LSU on Saturday.
Braylon Sanders (WR)	Prob Sat	Lower Body - 17 / 10 / 21	5-2	0-7	+ -
Sanders has missed the last three contests with a lower-body injury, but it is projected that he will return against Liberty on Saturday.
Jerrion Ealy (RB)	Ques Sat	Concussion - 07 / 10 / 21	5-4	1-8	+ -
Ealy sat out the last game while experiencing concussion-like symptoms, and it is uncertain if he will pass protocol prior to Saturday's clash versus Tennessee.
Caleb Warren (OL)	Prob Sat	Ankle - 07 / 10 / 21	5-4	1-8	+ -
Warren has been sidelined with an ankle injury, but he is likely to take on LSU on Saturday.
Jonathan Mingo (WR)	Out indefinitely	Foot - 02 / 10 / 21	6-4	2-8	+ -
Mingo is sidelined with a broken foot, and it has yet to be determined when he will return to the lineup.