Arizona Bowl Point Spread: College Football Bowl Odds, Prediction
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Andrew Rogers
New Mexico State is one of the most pass-happy teams in Division I, throwing the ball on a whopping 65.5 percent of offensive plays against FBS opponents. That should serve as a major test for a Utah State team whose opponents threw the ball on just 35.8 percent of its plays this season.
Aggies vs. Aggies Spread and Betting Analysis
Utah State was a favorite three times during the regular season, and covered all three times. But it has gone just 9-20 ATS over its previous 29 games overall and has just two covers in its previous 11 encounters with foes from the Sun Belt Conference. New Mexico State is largely trending in the right direction, having posted six covers and one push in its previous seven non-conference games while going 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. the Mountain West Conference.
Sports Interaction wagerers are split right down the middle on this one, while 80 percent are taking the over on the 63-point total. New Mexico State’s prolific pass offence likely has something to do with it – and so, too, does a Utah State rush attack that averaged better than 170 yards per game. Utah State is 9-3 O/U in its previous 12 games, while New Mexico State has exceeded the total in 22 of its last 30 non-conference outings.
New Mexico State Aggies
The key for the “other” Aggies will be containing New Mexico State quarterback Tyler Rogers, who finished second in the Sun Belt in passing yards (3,825) and third in touchdowns (26); New Mexico State went 3-1 in games in which Rogers threw for three or more TDs. But his 16 interceptions are cause for concern, contributing significantly to New Mexico State’s 2.2 turnovers per game; only eight Division I teams had more turnovers than the Aggies (26).
Utah State Aggies
Utah State should have a measurable advantage in the turnover game, forcing 26 during the season – tied for 11th-most in the nation. The Aggies love to spread the ball around in the ground game, with seven players racking up at least 18 carries on the season. LaJuan Hunt led the way with 149 attempts for 695 yards and 10 touchdowns; eight of those scores came in the final five games, with Hunt recording three 100-yard performances over that span.
