Tennessee (6) vs. Virginia (3) Bracket Prediction: March Madness Odds
You can often throw seedings out the window in March Madness, and that is certainly the case when a No. 3 seed goes up against a No. 6 seed in round two. Those are generally even matchups, and Sunday’s Midwest Region showdown between the Virginia Cavaliers and Tennessee Volunteers should be no exception. In fact, No. 6 Tennessee is the favourite over No. 3 Virginia.
This marks the 15th all-time meeting between these two programs, with Virginia leading the head-to-head series 8-6. However, Tennessee has won three of the last four encounters, most recently prevailing 64-42 at Virginia in November 2024.
Tennessee vs. Virginia NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
Tennessee may be seeded lower, but it is going off as a -1.5 favourite on the NCAA odds board (-118 on the money line). UVA is priced at -102 to win outright. As for the game total, it is set at 137.5 points.
Recent trends are in favor of the Volunteers, who are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games. The Cavaliers are 6-11 ATS in their last 17 overall. Meanwhile, the Under is 10-2 in Tennessee’s last 12 contests; however, the Over is 5-0 in Virginia’s last five. Tennessee covered comfortably against Miami (OH) in the Round of 64, but Virginia failed to cover as 17.5-favourites against Wright State.
Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee did not exactly get the most favorable of first-round draws, as Miami (OH) was one of the most polarizing teams in the NCAA Tournament. The RedHawks were playing with a chip on their shoulder amidst all of the naysayers who believed they didn’t belong in the Big Dance, plus they already had a win under their belt (beat SMU in a play-in game). Although the RedHawks were a threat, the Volunteers took control right from the start on Friday afternoon and cruised to a 78-56 victory.
What’s particularly encouraging, but also alarming in a way, is that the Volts dominated from start to finish, even though Nate Ament did not score a point. That’s right, a guy who is averaging 17.5 points per game did not put the ball in the basket a single time. Fortunately for Tennessee, Ja’Kobi Gillespie picked up the slack with 29 points on 11-for-21 shooting (6-for-11 from three-point range).
Virginia Cavaliers
As usual, this Virginia team is about fundamentals and defence. The Cavaliers are giving up only 68.5 points per game, and they are ranked outside the top 230 in pace of play (69.5 possessions per contest). UVA is committing fewer than 11 turnovers per outing, and its assist-to-turnover ratio is in the top 50 in the country.
The Wahoos’ first-round meeting with Wright State was, however, a bit of an aberration. They scored 82 points and surrendered 73, resulting in a contest that was relatively competitive for almost the entire game. The Cavaliers watched the Raiders shoot 42% (13-for-31) from the land of plenty.
Who Will Win Volunteers vs. Cavaliers?
Virginia may not be widely thought of as a National Championship contender, but it takes quite a lot to beat this time. The Cavaliers have lost only five games this entire season, two of which have come to Duke. They have lost just twice to unranked opponents; one of those was in triple-overtime (Virginia Tech), and the other was way back in November (Butler). Tennessee is ranked No. 23, but the point is that UVA is extremely inconsistent.
You have to play very solid basketball to beat Virginia, but that’s not what the Vols are doing these days. Heck, they are 3-4 in their last seven games. Let’s go with Virginia 72, Tennessee 68.