Northern Iowa (12) vs. St. John’s (5) Bracket Prediction: March Madness Odds
The St. John’s Red Storm will be looking to maintain momentum from a huge performance throughout the Big East Tournament when they begin their NCAA Tournament campaign on Friday night. Head coach Rick Pitino’s team is the No. 5 seed in the East Region and will go up against the No. 12 Northern Iowa Panthers at Viejas Arena in San Diego, California.
St. John’s is making a second consecutive appearance in the Big Dance after getting upset in the second round by Arkansas as a No. 2 seed in 2025. Northern Iowa has punched its ticket for the first time since advancing to the second round twice in a row in 2015 and 2016. This marks the first head-to-head meeting between these two programs.
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John’s Red Storm NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
The No. 5 vs. No 12 line is generally among the most entertaining in March Madness, but this particular matchup is not projected to be competitive based on the odds. St. John’s comes in as a significant -10.5 favourite on the March Madness odds against the spread and -600 on the moneyline. Northern Iowa is +440 to produce a big upset. The game total is set at 131.5 points.
Both teams have been profitable in recent weeks. St. John’s is 4-0 against the spread in its last four games; Northern Iowa is 4-1 ATS in its last five. Meanwhile, the Under is 9-1 in the Red Storm’s last 10 overall, but the Over is 7-4 in the Panthers’ last 11.
Northern Iowa Panthers (12)
The Panthers underwhelmed with an 11-9 record in the Missouri Valley Conference, and a No. 6 seed in the tournament prevented them from getting a first-round bye. However, head coach Ben Jacobson’s crew raised its level throughout “Arch Madness” in St. Louis. It reeled off four wins in four days, beating Evansville, No. 3 Illinois State, No. 2 Bradley, and No. 5 Illinois-Chicago.
The Panthers rely on two attributes: depth and defence. Nine players log at least 11.1 minutes per contest, and five score at least 9.1 PPG. They are the top-scoring defence in the entire country, giving up a mere 62.1 PPG. Northern Iowa is third nationally in three-point defence, holding opponents to a 28.9 per cent clip from deep.
St. John’s Red Storm (5)
Don’t necessarily stop at the No. 1 line when you are filling out your bracket and looking for potential national champions. In fact, going all the way down to the No. 5s would not be a terrible idea when trying to identify that eventual winner. That’s because St. John’s has a ton of potential. The Red Storm may not be the most consistent group around…but when you only have to win six more games, it’s simply about getting hot at the right time.
Well, Pitino’s team is already boiling. St. John’s is 19-1 in its last 20 games and avenged a ridiculous 32-point loss to UConn by beating the Huskies 72-52 in the Big East Tournament final. Senior forward Zuby Ejiofor (16.3 PPG) has led the Johnnies in scoring in five straight games.
March Madness Prediction: Who Will Win Northern Iowa vs. St. John’s?
The Red Storm weren’t treated well by the committee. Their reward for winning the Big East was getting a No. 5 seed, a spot in the most difficult region, and a matchup with one of the best defensive teams in the land. That said, St. John’s should be able to outscore Northern Iowa.
Nobody on the Panthers’ roster is averaging more than Trey Campbell’s 13.7 points per game, and the Red Storm are also an outstanding defensive squad. Let’s go with St. John’s 69, Northern Iowa 60.
