NCAA Basketball: Latest NCAA Tournament odds and hot/cold teams to watch
It’s finally March. The final week of the regular season is here, and the national picture has shifted yet again. Duke is holding firm at No. 1 nationally after beating Michigan on a neutral floor and clinching the ACC regular-season title with a dominant win over second-place Virginia.
Michigan sandwiched the Duke loss, winning by double digits at Purdue and at Illinois to lock up the Big Ten crown. Florida has clinched the SEC, while Arizona can wrap up the Big 12 with a win over Iowa State on Monday. Meanwhile, Houston has looked more pedestrian in the last two weeks, UConn has played with some fire and Iowa State’s rollercoaster stretch has lengthened its futures price.
Make sure to check out Sports Interaction’s complete list NCAA basketball futures.
How did the NCAA Tournament odds change?
Here are the updated national title odds as of Monday, March 2:
- Michigan +300
- Duke +350
- Arizona +500
- Florida +750
- Houston +1100
- Iowa State +1800
- Connecticut +1800
- Kansas +3000
- Purdue +4000
- Gonzaga +4000
Duke’s jump to +350 comes after a 68-63 win over Michigan in the Edward Jones Capital Showcase, dominant performances against Syracuse and Notre Dame, and a convincing ACC title-clinching performance against Virginia. Cameron Boozer continues to anchor an elite two-way group peaking at the right time.
Michigan remains the betting favourite at +300, proving they can win in hostile environments, but they did just lose key bench player and backup point guard LJ Cason for the year with a torn ACL.
Houston has fallen to +1100 after a few losses. Iowa State (+1800) has also lengthened following losses to BYU, Texas Tech and TCU, though its ceiling remains intact. UConn, despite being projected as a No. 1 seed by Bracket Matrix, has shown volatility with uneven recent performances.
Hot and cold teams to watch out for
Florida is rolling, having clinched the SEC and just hanging 111 points on Arkansas. They have won nine straight, including a perfect February stretch. The Gators’ physical front-court and improving guard play make them dangerous.
Michigan State has now won four straight since they lost by 21 at Wisconsin, including victories at Purdue and Indiana. Tom Izzo’s group is surging at the right time and projects as a dangerous three-seed.
On the colder side, Houston’s three losses in two weeks are concerning, particularly given offensive inconsistencies late in games. Illinois has stumbled, losing to Michigan and UCLA, while Vanderbilt has dropped three of four.
Iowa State is a fascinating buy-low candidate. The Cyclones are 3-3 in their last six, but that stretch includes wins over Houston and Kansas. Their elite backcourt pressure (top-10 nationally in turnover rate forced) and 39 per cent three-point shooting still travel. In March, that profile is dangerous.
Best NCAA Tournament futures bet to lock in right now: Iowa State to make Final Four (+380)
This is the time to strike.
Iowa State’s recent losses have inflated its price, but the underlying metrics remain strong. The Cyclones rank inside the top 20 in offensive efficiency and thrive on veteran guard play with Tamin Lipsey controlling tempo. Milan Momcilovic is shooting better than 50 per cent from three, and Joshua Jefferson provides versatile scoring and playmaking.
Defensively, Iowa State forces turnovers at an elite clip and limits free-throw attempts, which is a combination that can rattle unfamiliar tournament opponents. Yes, they lack traditional rim protection and dominant low-post scoring, but their perimeter defence and shot-making give them a high ceiling.
If they lose at Arizona as expected, the number could tick slightly higher. But at +380 to make the Final Four, you’re betting on experience, shooting and defensive intensity; three traits that win in March.