First Four to Final Four?

VCU went from the First Four to the Final Four in the first season of the expanded bracket. Can anyone repeat the feat this year? Al Dannity ranks the contenders.

Let’s get this out of the way early. There’s no way one of the four 16 seeds in the First Four will make it past Louisville or Indiana. That means we can wave goodbye to LIU Brooklyn, James Madison, North Carolina A&T, and Liberty.

That leaves the four teams looking to lock up 11 and 13 seeds respectively. Starting with the two teams in the 13 seed play-in game, Boise State and La Salle. The Broncos immediately jump out as a non-runner for me. Their resume was, naturally, just good enough for the tournament but there’s nothing on the docket that screams of a deep run. The Broncos last recorded a significant win on the road back in November, knocking off Creighton 83-70. There’s nothing in their Mountain West resume that indicates they can get back to winning ways outside of Idaho. That puts the slipper squarely on La Salle in this pairing. In January the Explorers won at home to Butler and at VCU in the span of four days. Those of the kind of results I look for on a dark horse’s resume.

I’m going to slot La Salle into the main bracket and proceed from there. Getting to the Sweet Sixteen is definitely plausible. Kansas State is good but not impregnable and the winner of Ole Miss and Wisconsin won’t play a game that will intimidate La Salle. To take the next step, the Explorers need Pitt to take down Gonzaga and set up a winnable game. Win that and they get…either New Mexico or Ohio State. An Elite Eight run is unlikely but not unthinkable. Taking care of business in the regional final in Los Angeles? Nope, not buying it.

But have they the best chance of all the teams playing Tuesday and Wednesday? St Mary’s and Middle Tennessee State are battling for the 11 seed in the brutal Midwest regional. The Blue Raiders lost for the first time since January 5 in the Sun Belt tournament but their resume is unimpressive, with only a home win over Ole Miss to bump up their credentials. St Mary’s however haven’t done all that much on the road either. I’m going to pick the Gaels over the Blue Raiders as they have two quality non-conference wins to MTSU’s one. Memphis will certainly be there for the taking on Thursday and Tom Izzo’s Spartans aren’t unbeatable, so again the Sweet Sixteen is possible. Duke or Creighton on a neutral site? Despite owning a win over the Blue Jays at home, I can’t see St Mary’s getting the same result in Indianapolis and that’s assuming Creighton shocks Duke. This is a brutal draw for the play-in team. No dice.

So while I don’t see any teams from the First Four making the Final Four, La Salle have the potential to hang around the longest.