Vanderbilt (10) vs. Saint Mary’s (7) Bracket Prediction: March Madness Odds

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Mar 20, 2025

NCAA Basketball: Mississippi at Vanderbilt

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No. 10 Vanderbilt will look to upset No. 7 Saint Mary's as 4.5-point underdogs in first-round NCAA Tournament action on Friday afternoon.

Vanderbilt
20-11
AT
March 21, 2025, 3:15 PM ET
Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Saint Mary's
27-4
Matchup Odds
Matchup Odds

Saint Mary’s dominated West Coast play with a 17-1 conference record this season, but they were left with a sour taste in their mouth after losing to Gonzaga in the final of the West Coast Tournament.

Vanderbilt wasn’t even close to competing in the stacked SEC, finishing with a losing regular season conference record before they were bounced by Texas in the first round of the SEC Tournament.

It’s no surprise to see the Gaels enter as 4.5-point favourites to win on the NCAAB odds, while the total is set at 135.5.

Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting

Historically, the 7 vs. 10 battle has been very close, with a 10-seed upsetting a 7-seed at least once in almost every March Madness tournament. Only one 10-seed survived the first round last year, with Colorado State beating Florida 102-100 in a shootout. The year prior, Penn State was the only 10-seed to advance, despite being the largest 10-seed underdog at +2.5 against Texas A&M.

When it comes to this year’s tournament, Saint Mary’s is listed as +12,500 to win the national championship on the NCAAB futures boards. Vanderbilt is an even bigger tournament long shot at +30,000. Personally, my top futures play is Over 20.5 wins for SEC teams. The SEC is sending a record 14 teams into this year’s tournament, including juggernauts like Florida (1-seed), Auburn (1-seed) Alabama (2-seed), Tennessee (2-seed) and Kentucky (3-seed) to name a few.

2025 March Madness Bracket Seeds: Most likely NCAA Tournament first round upsets

Vanderbilt Commodores (10)

Despite a poor record in SEC play, Vanderbilt finished the season with a respectable 20-12 record overall, but it’s still tough to get behind this team. They really shot themselves in the foot with a first-round loss to Texas in the SEC Tournament and they don’t have any non-conference wins to brag about. Still, playing in the stacked SEC gave the Commodores opportunities to knock off some big names like Tennessee, Kentucky and Missouri. I don’t see this team going on a long tournament run, but they could win a game or two.

One concern is Vanderbilt’s defence, which ranks last in the SEC. Part of the problem has been turnovers, particularly with AJ Hoggard committing one on one-fifth of his possessions. The performance of Jason Edwards will be key. He is by far the team’s highest scorer with 17.0 points per game and he’s shooting 36 per cent from beyond the arc. Edwards’ perimeter shooting will have to be good enough to offset the team’s poor defensive play.

Saint Mary’s Gaels (7)

This team’s ceiling is likely the Sweet 16, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them rattle off a couple of wins. Now in his 24th season, WCC Coach of the Year Randy Bennett led Saint Mary’s to a regular season championship with a 17-1 record only to come up short against Gonzaga in the West Coast Tournament.

The Gaels boast a top-15 defensive unit and they have a trio of players to watch for in this tournament. WCC Player of the Year Augustus Marciulionis leads the team in points (14.1), assists (6.1), steals (1.4) and blocks (1.3) per game. WCC Defensive Player of the Year Mitchell Saxen is averaging 10.6 ppg and 7.9 rebounds, while WCC Sixth Man of the Year Mikey Lewis is shooting 39 per cent from beyond the arc and averaging 8.5 ppg.

March Madness Prediction: Who Will Win Commodores vs. Gaels?

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