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Sports Interaction Staff
Baylor (9) vs. Mississippi State (8) Bracket Prediction: March Madness Odds
Mississippi State and Baylor meet in the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament, set for Friday, March 21, at 12:15 p.m. ET at Lenovo Center in Raleigh, North Carolina. Baylor looks to extend its streak of first-round victories under coach Scott Drew, while Mississippi State hopes to secure its first tournament win since 2008.
This 8 vs. 9 matchup features two battle-tested teams with contrasting styles, making for an intriguing contest.
Baylor vs. Mississippi State NCAA Tournament Point Spread and Betting
This 8 vs. 9 matchup is one of the most evenly split first-round games, featuring two teams that are inconsistent but talented.
- Baylor’s advantage: More offensive depth, tournament experience, and a proven March coach in Scott Drew.
- Mississippi State’s advantage: A stronger defense, a dominant rebounding presence, and an ability to force turnovers.
Key battle: Baylor’s three-point defense (which struggles) vs. Mississippi State’s three-point shooting (which is awful at 31.4%). If Mississippi State can hit outside shots, they’ll have a serious edge.
Baylor Bears
Baylor enters the NCAA Tournament with a talented but inconsistent roster, having retooled with key offseason additions. Transfers Norchad Omier (Miami) and Jeremy Roach (Duke) bring valuable experience, while freshman VJ Edgecombe has developed into a significant contributor. Despite these additions, the team has struggled to fully click, which contributed to their underwhelming 19-14 record and 10-10 Big 12 finish. Baylor ranks 30th in NET rankings and 29th in KenPom, with an offensive efficiency ranking of 16th in the nation.
Offensively, the Bears boast multiple scoring threats, with Omier dominating the glass (10.9 RPG) and Edgecombe emerging as a playmaker. However, their perimeter defense remains a glaring weakness, allowing opponents to shoot 35.0% from three, placing them in the bottom 25% of Division I. Chemistry issues and inconsistent shooting from veterans like Roach and Jayden Nunn have also hindered their progress. Freshman Robert Wright III is an X-factor, as his ability to spark the offense could play a pivotal role in this matchup.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State, led by Chris Jans, has built its success on strong fundamentals, ranking among the top-50 rebounding teams and excelling at forcing turnovers. Their defense has been battle-tested in the SEC, a conference known for high-paced, physical play. Despite some struggles against elite competition, they remain a tough team to break down, ranking 16th nationally in steals per game (9.2 SPG).
The Bulldogs’ offence revolves around Josh Hubbard (18.7 PPG), one of the most dangerous sophomore scorers in the SEC. However, their 31.4% team three-point shooting is a major liability, and they often struggle to find a reliable second scoring option. KeShawn Murphy (11.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG) provides stability in the frontcourt, but outside of Hubbard, the Bulldogs lack a consistent offensive spark. Their defence and ability to control the boards will be key against Baylor, especially if they can force turnovers and capitalize in transition.
Who Will Win Baylor vs. Mississippi State?
Given Baylor’s superior offense and tournament experience, the Bears have a slight edge. However, Mississippi State’s defense and rebounding could make this a grind.