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2026 March Madness Final Four: Who advances from Illinois-UConn, Arizona-Michigan?

The calendar may have flipped to April, but the madness continues as the NCAA Tournament prepares for the Final Four.

It’s the last stop for March Madness as the tournament heads to Indianapolis for the Final Four on Saturday and the national championship game on Monday.

We’re here to break down each team’s path to the Final Four and what they need to do to advance to the national championship. Let’s get into it.

Don’t forget to check out Sports Interaction’s complete list of March Madness game odds and March Madness futures.

UConn (3) vs. Illinois (2)

UConn path to Final Four:

First round – W vs. No. 15 Furman (82-71)

Second round – W vs. No. 7 UCLA (73-57)

Sweet 16 – W vs. No. 3 Michigan State (67-63)

Elite Eight – W vs. No. 1 Duke (73-72)

UConn will win if:

They shut down Illinois’ offence. The Huskies’ size has allowed them to stifle opponents defensively and that has to be the game plan against an Illinois offence that ranks top-25 in the nation with almost 84 points per game.

Leading scorer Tarris Reed Jr. needs to continue to elevate. The senior big man has hit the 20-point mark in three of four tournament games and he was UConn’s best player with 26 points and nine boards against Duke.

Potential Achilles heel:

Getting to the line. UConn is one of the worst teams at generating free throws, ranking 310th in the nation, and they rank 271st in opponent free throws. Turning that around is crucial against an Illinois team that literally leads the nation in opponent free throws allowed.

Illinois path to Final Four:

First round – W vs. No. 14 Penn (105-70)

Second round – W vs. No. 11 VCU (76-55)

Sweet 16 – W vs. No. 2 Houston (65-55)

Elite Eight – W vs. No. 9 Iowa (71-59)

Illinois will win if:

They stop Reed. UConn’s big man has been one of the most dominant at his position in the NCAA tournament, propping up the Huskies’ inconsistent perimeter shooting. And if the Illini can’t limit Reed, they need to get him into foul trouble.

Illinois also needs to win the battle beyond the arc. They attempt 3s at a higher rate than almost any other school and they haven’t allowed double-digit 3s since Feb. 10.

Potential Achilles heel:

Relying too heavily on the 3. The Illini are an elite 3-point shooting team, but if the ball doesn’t drop, UConn benefits in a big way.

Arizona (1) vs. Michigan (1)

Arizona path to Final Four:

First round – W vs. No. 16 LIU (92-58)

Second round – W vs. No. 9 Utah State (78-66)

Sweet 16 – W vs. No. 4 Arkansas (109-88)

Elite Eight – W vs. No. 2 Purdue (79-64)

Arizona will win if:

They win the battle in the paint. Both teams are elite rebounders, but Arizona has the edge. The Wildcats are a top five team nationally in both paint points per game and offensive rebounding and they lead the nation in free throws per game.

Arizona also needs to limit Michigan’s transition opportunities. The Wolverines score more than 13 fast-break points per game in wins, showcasing their efficient offence. The Wildcats can’t let that happen.

Potential Achilles heel:

Three-point shooting. This has been an issue for Arizona all year. They are one of the worst schools in the nation in generating 3-point attempts and they’ve made double-digit 3s just four times this season and only once since Dec. 13.

Michigan path to Final Four:

First round – W vs. No. 16 Howard (101-80)

Second round – W vs. No. 9 Saint Louis (95-72)

Sweet 16 – W vs. No. 4 Alabama (90-77)

Elite Eight – W vs. No. 6 Tennessee (95-62)

Michigan will win if:

They lock down the rim. Michigan needs to take away Arizona’s path to the rim and force the Wildcats to shoot outside the paint. Arizona has feasted when they draw fouls and get to the line.

Michigan also needs to do damage from 3-point range. The Wolverines are making 40 per cent of their threes since March 1, which should throw a wrench into Arizona’s defensive game plan as all four of the Wildcats’ tournament opponents have struggled from beyond the arc.

Potential Achilles heel:

Response when the 3 doesn’t drop. Michigan has dominated college basketball statistically this season, but one thing is common in their three losses: opponents’ strong perimeter defence. Michigan has shot just 28 per cent combined from 3 in their three losses, so they need to find a way to make Arizona pay if the 3-ball isn’t going in.