2026 March Madness Bracket: Most likely NCAA Tournament first round upsets
It’s the best time of year for college basketball as all eyes turn to March Madness. The NCAA Tournament tips-off with the First Four on Tuesday, with the official bracket beginning on Thursday.
The field of 64 teams will be whittled down until the tournament concludes with the national championship game on April 6 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.
With time still left to lock in your brackets, we’re cracking open the books and looking at the history of first-round upsets. Let’s get into it.
Don’t forget to check out Sports Interaction’s complete list of March Madness game odds and March Madness futures.
1 vs. 16
Clearly the 1 vs. 16 matchup is the most lopsided. The 1-seed is 158-2 all-time against 16-seeds, with two massive upsets over the last eight years.
The first 16-seed upset was in 2018 when UMBC shocked the top overall seed in the tournament, Virginia, in a 74-54 blowout despite entering the game as 20.5-point underdogs. UMBC will look to repeat history against Michigan this year, but they’ll have to get through Howard in the First Four.
The most recent 1 vs. 16 upset was in 2023. Fairleigh Dickinson stunned Purdue 63-58, spoiling Canadian Zach Edey’s 21-point effort for the Boilermakers.
We’re still waiting for a 16-seed to win multiple games as both UMBC and Fairleigh Dickinson went on to lose in the second round.
2 vs. 15
No. 2 seeds have swept the last two tournaments against 15-seeds and hold a 149-11 all-time edge. However, the 15-seed has closed the gap in recent years.
No. 2 seeds were only upset four times before 2012, but 15-seeds have won seven times in the last 12 tournaments.
Princeton is the most recent 15-seed to upset a 2-seed when they beat Arizona in 2023. The Tigers were 16-point underdogs in that game and they went on to obliterate brackets as they reached the Sweet 16.
In 2022, Saint Peter’s became the most successful 15-seed in tournament history. They shocked a powerhouse Kentucky squad in the first round before becoming the only 15-seed ever to reach the Elite Eight. It was the best NCAA Tournament result in school history.
3. vs. 14
No. 3 seeds were a perfect 4-0 against 14-seeds last year and they lead the all-time series 137-23. Of those 23 all-time wins by 14-seeds, 12 games were decided by three or less points, including six by just one point.
No. 3 seeds have only lost three times in the last 10 years. One of those losses was in 2024 when Oakland beat Kansas 80-76 as a 13.5-point underdog.
4. vs. 13
The 4 vs. 13 matchup is where things start to get interesting. Since 1985, 4-seeds have a 127-33 record against 13-seeds, but a 4-seed has suffered an upset loss in 17 of the last 24 tournaments.
Historically, 13-seeds fare much better in closer games as they are 7-2 straight up against 4-seeds in games decided by one point.
There were no 13-seed upsets last year, but Yale managed to get by No. 4 Auburn in 2024. The 13-seeded Bulldogs were 13.5-point underdogs, the largest spread of any of the 4 vs. 13 matchups.
5 vs. 12
Many people refer to the 5 vs. 12 games as the money matchups and for good reason as at least one 12-seed has knocked off a 5-seed in 34 of the last 40 tournaments.
The 5-seeds lead the all-time series 103-57, but two 12-seeds have advanced in each of the last two tournaments. Three or more 12-seeds have advanced in the same tournament five times over the last 24 years (2002, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2019).
Last year, McNeese upset Clemson and Colorado State shocked Memphis. Both 12-seeds went on to lose in the second round.
6 vs. 11
No. 6 seeds are 98-62 against 11-seeds since 1985, with 11-seeds doing most of their damage in chunks.
Between 1991 and 1995, 11-seeds went 15-5 against 6-seeds and between 2002 and 2004, 11-seeds were 12-4 against 6-seeds.
While Drake was the only 11-seed to advance last year, Oregon Duquesne and NC State all advanced as 11-seeds in 2024. NC State will return as an 11-seed in 2026 if they get by Texas in the First Four.
7 vs. 10
This is the last matchup where the better seed has an edge in wins, with 7-seeds going 97-62 all-time against 10-seeds. No. 10 seeds have proven to be pesky as they have only been swept twice (1993, 2007) in the last 40 years.
Two 10-seeds advanced last year, with New Mexico beating Marquette and Arkansas getting past Kansas. This year’s 10-7 matchups feature UFC (10) vs. UCLA (7), Missouri (10) vs. Miami (7), Santa Clara (10) vs. Kentucky (7) and Texas A&M (10) vs. Saint Mary’s (7).
8 vs. 9
The 8 vs. 9 battle is the only matchup where the better seeded team has a disadvantage. Since 1985, 9-seeds are 83-77 against 8-seeds, which is a .519 win percentage.
It was a split between 8-seeds and 9-seeds last year, with Creighton and Baylor pulling off upsets over Louisville and Mississippi State. The 9-seeds were even better in 2024, going 3-1 both SU and against the spread.