It’s the Western Conference final but many basketball fans see this matchup between the Golden State Warriors and the Houston Rockets as the de facto NBA Finals.

NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Golden State (66-26 straight up and 39-52-1 against the spread) is back to playing at the level NBA fans remember from last season. The defending champions took care of the New Orleans Pelicans in five games and pulled the same trick against the San Antonio Spurs in the first round.

The Warriors are turning things up at the defensive end in the playoffs. They own the best defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) in the postseason at 99.3 and the under is 5-2 in their last seven games.

Houston (47-44-1 ATS, 38-53-1 O/U) finished off the Utah Jazz in five games thanks in large part to Chris Paul going nuclear. The point guard exploded for 68 points, 16 assists and 19 rebounds in the last two games including a 41-point effort in the series clincher.

The Rockets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven and went 2-1 (SU and ATS) against the Warriors during the regular season. These are the two best teams in the league according to the fans and the numbers. The Rockets and Dubs finished first and second in net rating during the campaign.

About 66 percent of Sports Interaction customers are backing the Warriors to cover as 1.5-point road favourites while 57 percent expect the game to go over the 224.5-point total.

Golden State is a -238 fave to win the series according to SIA’s NBA futures board while the Rockets are paying +163 to pull off the upset and make it to their first NBA Finals since 1995.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State trotted out its new death lineup comically called the Hamptons Five because of the presence of the Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Andre Iguogala at the meeting to convince then free agent Kevin Durant to join the Warriors in the summer of 2016.

The five-man lineup carries a +40.9 net rating in the playoffs into Game 1 on Monday against the Rockets. Curry is the key player to watch in this series for Golden State supporters. The All-Star point guard and two-time league MVP has four games under his belt since returning from a prolonged spell on the sidelines with ankle and knee issues.

Houston Rockets

James Harden is the player to keep an eye for Houston bettors. The NBA’s regular season scoring champion and soon-to-be league MVP is shooting just 40.7 percent from the field in the playoffs. He has a history of melting down at pivot moments in past postseasons and the Warriors will do everything they can to expose him at the defensive end of the floor.

Injuries

Golden State

Shaun Livingston (PG)

Prob Sun Ankle - 20 / 04 / 18

JaVale McGee (C)

Prob Thurs Quadricep - 18 / 04 / 18

David West (PF)

Prob Thurs Ankle - 17 / 04 / 18

Andre Iguodala (SF)

Prob Mon Thigh - 15 / 04 / 18

Damian Jones (C)

Prob Tues Foot - 09 / 04 / 18

Nick Young (SG)

Prob Sat Illness - 07 / 04 / 18

Kevon Looney (SF)

Prob Thurs Flu - 02 / 04 / 18

Patrick McCaw (SG)

Early June Back - 01 / 04 / 18

Quinn Cook (PG)

Prob Tues Knee - 27 / 03 / 18

Chris Boucher (SF)

Out indefinitely Ankle - 25 / 03 / 18

Houston

PJ Tucker (SF)

Prob Wed Knee - 24 / 04 / 18

Trevor Ariza (SF)

Out Wed Rest - 11 / 04 / 18

Clint Capela (C)

Prob Sun Hand - 11 / 04 / 18

Eric Gordon (SG)

Prob Sun Ankle - 11 / 04 / 18

Luc Mbah a Moute (PF)

Prob Sun Shoulder - 11 / 04 / 18

Nene (C)

Out Wed Rest - 11 / 04 / 18

Chris Paul (PG)

Out Wed Rest - 11 / 04 / 18

Tarik Black (PF)

Ques Tues Back - 06 / 04 / 18

Ryan Anderson (PF)

Prob Sat Ankle - 03 / 04 / 18

Gerald Green (SG)

day-to-day Leg - 01 / 04 / 18

Injuries

Golden State

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Shaun Livingston (PG)	Prob Sun	Ankle - 20 / 04 / 18	10-9	7-12	+ -
Livingston is dealing with a left ankle injury but is likely to play against the Spurs in Game 4 of the Western Conference first round.
JaVale McGee (C)	Prob Thurs	Quadricep - 18 / 04 / 18	10-9	7-12	+ -
McGee is nursing a left quadriceps contusion but is likely to play against the Spurs in Game 3 of the Western Conference first round.
David West (PF)	Prob Thurs	Ankle - 17 / 04 / 18	11-9	7-12-1	+ -
West sustained an ankle injury but is likely to be available for Game 3 of the Western Conference first round against the Spurs.
Andre Iguodala (SF)	Prob Mon	Thigh - 15 / 04 / 18	11-9	7-12-1	+ -
Iguodala is expected to suit up against the Spurs in Game 2 of the Western Conference first round despite a left thigh contusion.
Damian Jones (C)	Prob Tues	Foot - 09 / 04 / 18	12-11	8-14-1	+ -
Jones is expected to suit up Tuesday against the Jazz despite a left mid-foot sprain.
Nick Young (SG)	Prob Sat	Illness - 07 / 04 / 18	12-12	9-14-1	+ -
Young is battling an illness but is expected to be available for Saturday's game against the Pelicans.
Kevon Looney (SF)	Prob Thurs	Flu - 02 / 04 / 18	14-13	10-16-1	+ -
Looney was absent from the lineup during the last game due to flu-like symptoms but is likely to be available against the Pacers on Thursday.
Patrick McCaw (SG)	Early June	Back - 01 / 04 / 18	14-14	11-16-1	+ -
McCaw is sidelined with a lumbosacral bone bruise and is expected to be re-evaluated in four weeks.
Quinn Cook (PG)	Prob Tues	Knee - 27 / 03 / 18	14-16	12-17-1	+ -
Cook is dealing with a left knee contusion but is expected to play in Tuesday's contest against the Pacers.
Chris Boucher (SF)	Out indefinitely	Ankle - 25 / 03 / 18	15-16	12-18-1	+ -
Boucher has been held out of action due to a sprained left ankle and it is unknown how much time he will be forced to miss.

Houston

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
PJ Tucker (SF)	Prob Wed	Knee - 24 / 04 / 18	8-5	5-8	+ -
Tucker is expected to suit up against the Timberwolves for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference first round despite a left knee injury.
Trevor Ariza (SF)	Out Wed	Rest - 11 / 04 / 18	9-10	6-13	+ -
Ariza will not be available against the Kings on Wednesday as he will be given the night off to rest.
Clint Capela (C)	Prob Sun	Hand - 11 / 04 / 18	9-10	6-13	+ -
Capela is battling a hand injury but is likely to be available for Game 1 of the Western Conference first round against the Timberwolves.
Eric Gordon (SG)	Prob Sun	Ankle - 11 / 04 / 18	9-10	6-13	+ -
Gordon has soreness in his left ankle but is expected to suit up against the Timberwolves in Game 1 of the Western Conference first round.
Luc Mbah a Moute (PF)	Prob Sun	Shoulder - 11 / 04 / 18	9-10	6-13	+ -
Mbah a Moute is recovering from a dislocated right shoulder but is expected to return for Game 1 of the Western Conference second round against the Jazz.
Nene (C)	Out Wed	Rest - 11 / 04 / 18	9-10	6-13	+ -
Nene will receive a day of rest and will not partake in Wednesday's game against the Kings.
Chris Paul (PG)	Out Wed	Rest - 11 / 04 / 18	9-10	6-13	+ -
Paul will not participate in Wednesday's game against the Kings due to a day of rest.
Tarik Black (PF)	Ques Tues	Back - 06 / 04 / 18	9-11	6-14	+ -
Black sat out the last game with a stiff lower back and it is unclear if he will play against the Lakers on Tuesday.
Ryan Anderson (PF)	Prob Sat	Ankle - 03 / 04 / 18	10-12	7-15	+ -
Anderson is recovering from a left ankle sprain but is expected to play in Game 3 of the Western Conference first round against the Timberwolves.
Gerald Green (SG)	day-to-day	Leg - 01 / 04 / 18	10-13	7-16	+ -
Green exited the previous game due to a left leg injury and it is unknown if he will return.

Warriors vs. Rockets Prediction