Warriors vs. Heat Prediction: NBA Odds, Point Spread

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Apr 01, 2021

Steph Curry returned from a five-game absence to drop 32 points against Chicago on Monday. As usual, if Golden State wins, Curry will be the catalyst.

Golden State
April 01, 2021, 8:00 PM ET
American Airlines Arena
Pointspread +3 -105
Moneyline +129
Over / Under o +217.5


Betting Action


Pointspread -3 -115
Moneyline -154
Over / Under u +217.5


Betting Action


It’s a quick turnaround for the Heat in this one.  After a 92–87 win in Indiana on Wednesday, Miami will host a Thursday matchup with the Warriors.  Golden State has been off since taking down Chicago 116-102 at home on Monday.

The Heat are 2-point favourites on the NBA odds with a total of 220.

NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis

These teams hit the West Coast in their only other meeting this season.  Golden State pulled out a 120-113 OT win with Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins, Kelly Oubre Jr., and Kent Bazemore each putting up more than 20 points.  Bam Adebayo‘s 24 points led Miami.

Even though Golden State has a winning home record and won the first game between these teams, keep in mind they struggle outside of Chase Center.  The Warriors are 9-15 on the road and have been an Under team in 15 of those games.  Golden State is 22-25 against the spread.  They’ve only covered in one of their last five games overall and one of their last five games against Miami.

The Heat are a dead-even 12-12 on the road and at home this season.  They’ve been an Under team in four of their last five games overall, but they’ve actually hit the Over in four of their last five games against Golden State.  Miami is 20-27-1 ATS.  They’ve covered in two of their last eight games overall and just one of their last seven home games.

Golden State Warriors

Golden State’s win against Chicago snapped a four-game slide, but they’ll need to string together some more wins to get into a playoff spot.  It’s pretty tight in the West and the Warriors are tied with Memphis for ninth in the conference, two games back of San Antonio for the final playoff spot.  They didn’t had a great March, although Wiggins was a bright spot.  The Canadian averaged 21.3 points per game in the month on 50.5 per cent shooting from the field.  Jordan Poole also shot about 50 per cent from the field and averaged 18.5 points per game in March.

Ignoring the rumours that LeBron James is already trying to recruit G-State’s franchise player to L.A., as long as Curry is on this roster, the entire offence will run through him.  Curry returned from a five-game absence to drop 32 points against Chicago on Monday.  The two-time MVP sits third in league scoring, averaging 29.1 points per game on 47.5 per cent shooting from the field and 40.9 per cent from beyond the arc.  As usual, if Golden State wins, Curry will be the catalyst.

Miami Heat

Miami’s four-game homestand will give them a great chance to position themselves higher up in the Eastern Conference standings.  The Heat are fifth in the East, but it’s pretty crowded in the conference.  Only two games separate fourth place from eighth place, so this is a must-win stretch of games for Miami.  The Heat won their last two games and allowed less than 90 points in each contest, but they also failed to break the 100-point mark in both games.  Duncan Robinson was the surprise star against Indiana.  He had a game-high 20 points and team-high eight rebounds in the win.  After a slow start to the year, Robinson is averaging 14.4 points per game and 55 per cent shooting from beyond the arc over his last five games.  Miami should also get their first look at Victor Oladipo, who’s expected to make his Heat debut on Thursday.  Oladipo was picked up from Houston at the trade deadline, his second move of the season after being part of the James Harden to Brooklyn deal.

Jimmy Butler looks like he’s back to his old self after dealing with COVID issues at the start of the year.  He had a triple-double in the last game against the Warriors and averaged 23.2 points, 7.4 rebounds, 6.2 assists and two steals per game in the month of March.  Just like Curry for the Warriors, Butler’s fingerprints are all over every aspect of this Miami team.  With the way their defence is playing, the Heat have a shot to beat any team in the NBA if their shooting gets hot.

NBA Prediction: Who Will Win Warriors vs. Heat?