Minnesota Timberwolves vs. San Antonio Spurs Game 1 Prediction, NBA Playoff Odds
The Western Conference semifinals are here, and the second-seeded San Antonio Spurs host the sixth-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves in a series that gets underway on Monday. The NBA had been salivating over a Victor Wembanyama vs. Anthony Edwards showdown, but the Timberwolves star now enters the series with a question mark due to a left knee hyperextension and a bone bruise sustained in the first round.
Minnesota still managed to eliminate Denver in six games despite losing Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo in Game 4. Now, a battle-tested but shorthanded Wolves squad heads to Frost Bank Center to open the series Monday at 9:30 p.m. ET.
Timberwolves vs. Spurs NBA Betting Odds
San Antonio enters as a 12.5-point favourite on the NBA odds, with the Over/Under set at 217.5 (-110 odds on both sides). The Spurs lead the all-time postseason series 6-2, including five of the last six playoff games between these franchises. However, Minnesota is 2-1 against San Antonio in their three regular-season matchups this year, covering in both of their wins.
The Over has connected in four of the past five head-to-head meetings, and both teams ranked in the top seven in scoring during the regular season. The Spurs averaged 119.8 points per game (third overall), while Minnesota averaged 118 (seventh overall). If both squads start getting up and down the floor, we should see plenty of points.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota arrives in San Antonio after upsetting the Denver Nuggets in Round 1, but that series win came with consequences. Donte DiVincenzo is out for the series (and entire playoffs) with a torn Achilles, while Edwards and Ayo Dosunmu are both listed as questionable for Game 1. The good news is that the Wolves showed remarkable resilience against Denver.
Rudy Gobert’s spectacular defence on Nikola Jokic, limiting him to 42 per cent shooting in their direct matchups, was the defining factor in Minnesota’s upset win, while Jaden McDaniels essentially erased Jamal Murray over the final four games. The Timberwolves held Denver’s league-leading offence to 13 fewer points per 100 possessions than their regular-season average, proving their defence can dominate even without their best player. The key question now is whether that formula translates against a Spurs team with far more offensive diversity and the most unguardable player on the planet patrolling the paint.
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs finished 62-20 this season, and boast a 34-9 home record at Frost Bank Center. The engine behind it all is Victor Wembanyama, the 22-year-old unanimous Defensive Player of the Year who averaged 25 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 3.1 blocks per game during the regular season. He set a franchise record in his playoff debut with 35 points against Portland, surpassing the previous mark held by Tim Duncan. He followed that up with 20 points, 14 rebounds, and six blocks in a series-clinching Game 5 win.
De’Aaron Fox has been Wemby’s ideal running mate, providing 28 points, seven assists, and two blocks in a dominant Game 4 performance against the Trail Blazers. Wembanyama averaged 34 points per game against Minnesota, specifically in two regular-season meetings, suggesting the Timberwolves have no reliable counter for him on either end.
NBA Prediction: Who Will Win Timberwolves vs. Spurs Game 1?
San Antonio is the right side here, but 12.5 points is a lot to lay in a playoff game against a veteran team. Minnesota allowed just 116 points every 100 possessions in the three meetings this season, which was the 10th-best defence against San Antonio.
When Wemby was on the court, that number ballooned to 133.9, but was just 102.2 when he sat. I can’t see him playing more than 34 minutes, and Minnesota has to take advantage when he’s off the court. They have enough talent to do so (even without Ant), so I expect Minnesota to keep Game 1 close enough to cover.
Best Bet: Timberwolves +12.5 (-105)
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