Purely on talent, Minnesota is much better than an eighth seed with star-quality players in Jimmy Butler, Karl-Anthony Towns and Canadian Andrew Wiggins. Butler and Towns were both All-Stars this season. Towns and Wiggins are both former No. 1 overall picks who won NBA Rookie of the Year honors.

NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Behind NBA MVP favourite James Harden, Houston set a franchise-record with 65 victories to earn the No. 1 overall seed in the NBA. That means the Rockets would play any Game 7 in these playoffs at home.

The Rockets swept the season series against the Wolves 4-0. The only game that was decided by single digits was the most recent meeting on March 18 in Minneapolis, a 129-120 Rockets victory. Houston was up as much as 25 in that one. Harden had 34 points and 12 assists and averaged 27.3 points and 10.3 assists vs. Minnesota this season. Chris Paul averaged 16.0 points, 8.3 assists and 8.0 rebounds in the series. Towns averaged 23.8 points and 14.8 rebounds vs. the Rockets. Butler missed the most recent meeting and averaged just 16.0 points. Wiggins was at 16.3 ppg.

Houston is the second-favourite behind Golden State to win the West at +105 as well as second favourite for the NBA title at +160. Minnesota, which has never reached the NBA Finals, is +5000 in the West and +8000 to win it all.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The playoffs actually started Wednesday for the Timberwolves as they had a winner-take-all home matchup against Denver for the final playoff spot in the West. The Wolves won a thriller 112-106 in overtime to reach the postseason for the first time in 14 years, which had been the NBA’s longest drought. Butler, in just his third game back after missing around six weeks due to a knee injury, played 42 minutes and had 31 points, five rebounds and five assists. The Wolves acquired him in trade from Chicago last summer to come up big in important games such as that.

Minnesota was once as high as third in the West but struggled mightily without Butler. The Wolves were an excellent home team but just 17-24 on the road, the second-worst road mark of the 16 playoff teams (San Antonio).

Houston Rockets

Harden should edge LeBron James for his first MVP Award. Harden, who was second in the voting last season to Russell Westbrook, became the first player to win the scoring title the season after leading it in assists. Harden averaged 30.4 ppg and was third in assists at 8.8 per game in 2017-18. The Rockets could have won 70 games had they wanted to but clinched the top seed in the West weeks ago and took their foot off the gas a bit, resting some key players. When motivated, the Rockets were nearly invincible when their Big 3 of Harden, Paul and rising star Clint Capela (first in NBA in field-goal percentage and second in blocks) all started.

There is one injury concern for the team and that’s valuable reserve Luc Mbah a Moute, who will miss at least the first round with a shoulder injury.

Injuries

Minnesota

Jeff Teague (PG)

Prob Wed Finger - 24 / 04 / 18

Tyus Jones (PG)

Prob Wed Knee - 23 / 04 / 18

Taj Gibson (PF)

Prob Sun Neck - 15 / 04 / 18

Derrick Rose (PG)

Prob Fri Ankle - 06 / 04 / 18

Justin Patton (C)

out for season Foot - 04 / 04 / 18

Cole Aldrich (C)

Ques Mon Illness - 26 / 03 / 18

Shabazz Muhammad (SG)

Out Fri Coach's Decision - 01 / 03 / 18

Aaron Brooks (PG)

Out indefinitely Personal - 01 / 03 / 18

Marcus Georges-Hunt (SG)

Ques Fri Illness - 07 / 02 / 18

Jamal Crawford (SG)

Prob Thurs Toe - 25 / 01 / 18

Houston

PJ Tucker (SF)

Prob Wed Knee - 24 / 04 / 18

Trevor Ariza (SF)

Out Wed Rest - 11 / 04 / 18

Clint Capela (C)

Prob Sun Hand - 11 / 04 / 18

Eric Gordon (SG)

Prob Sun Ankle - 11 / 04 / 18

Luc Mbah a Moute (PF)

Prob Sun Shoulder - 11 / 04 / 18

Nene (C)

Out Wed Rest - 11 / 04 / 18

Chris Paul (PG)

Out Wed Rest - 11 / 04 / 18

Tarik Black (PF)

Ques Tues Back - 06 / 04 / 18

Ryan Anderson (PF)

Prob Sat Ankle - 03 / 04 / 18

Gerald Green (SG)

day-to-day Leg - 01 / 04 / 18

Injuries

Minnesota

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Jeff Teague (PG)	Prob Wed	Finger - 24 / 04 / 18	0-1	1-0	+ -
Teague is expected to suit up for Game 5 of the Western Conference first round against the Rockets despite a dislocated finger.
Tyus Jones (PG)	Prob Wed	Knee - 23 / 04 / 18	1-1	2-0	+ -
Jones is hampered by soreness in his right knee but is likely to play against the Rockets in Game 5 of the Western Conference first round.
Taj Gibson (PF)	Prob Sun	Neck - 15 / 04 / 18	3-2	3-2	+ -
Gibson is expected to play against the Rockets in Game 1 of the Western Conference first round against the Rockets despite a neck injury.
Derrick Rose (PG)	Prob Fri	Ankle - 06 / 04 / 18	6-3	4-5	+ -
Rose is battling an ankle injury but is expected to be available for Friday's game against the Lakers.
Justin Patton (C)	out for season	Foot - 04 / 04 / 18	6-3	4-5	+ -
Patton had surgery on his left foot to repair a fractured metatarsal and is likely to miss the remainder of the season.
Cole Aldrich (C)	Ques Mon	Illness - 26 / 03 / 18	6-6	6-7	+ -
Aldrich is battling an illness and it is uncertain if he will be available against the Grizzlies on Monday.
Shabazz Muhammad (SG)	Out Fri	Coach's Decision - 01 / 03 / 18	10-12	13-10	+ -
Muhammad will not be available Friday against the Jazz as he works with the team toward a buyout.
Aaron Brooks (PG)	Out indefinitely	Personal - 01 / 03 / 18	10-12	13-10	+ -
Brooks has been sidelined due to a personal matter and it is uncertain when he will return.
Marcus Georges-Hunt (SG)	Ques Fri	Illness - 07 / 02 / 18	12-18	20-11	+ -
Georges-Hunt has missed the last five games with an illness and his availability for Friday against the Rockets is uncertain.
Jamal Crawford (SG)	Prob Thurs	Toe - 25 / 01 / 18	16-21	23-15	+ -
Crawford is expected to be on the court for Thursday's game against the Warriors despite an injured toe.

Houston

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
PJ Tucker (SF)	Prob Wed	Knee - 24 / 04 / 18	8-5	5-8	+ -
Tucker is expected to suit up against the Timberwolves for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference first round despite a left knee injury.
Trevor Ariza (SF)	Out Wed	Rest - 11 / 04 / 18	9-10	6-13	+ -
Ariza will not be available against the Kings on Wednesday as he will be given the night off to rest.
Clint Capela (C)	Prob Sun	Hand - 11 / 04 / 18	9-10	6-13	+ -
Capela is battling a hand injury but is likely to be available for Game 1 of the Western Conference first round against the Timberwolves.
Eric Gordon (SG)	Prob Sun	Ankle - 11 / 04 / 18	9-10	6-13	+ -
Gordon has soreness in his left ankle but is expected to suit up against the Timberwolves in Game 1 of the Western Conference first round.
Luc Mbah a Moute (PF)	Prob Sun	Shoulder - 11 / 04 / 18	9-10	6-13	+ -
Mbah a Moute is recovering from a dislocated right shoulder but is expected to return for Game 1 of the Western Conference second round against the Jazz.
Nene (C)	Out Wed	Rest - 11 / 04 / 18	9-10	6-13	+ -
Nene will receive a day of rest and will not partake in Wednesday's game against the Kings.
Chris Paul (PG)	Out Wed	Rest - 11 / 04 / 18	9-10	6-13	+ -
Paul will not participate in Wednesday's game against the Kings due to a day of rest.
Tarik Black (PF)	Ques Tues	Back - 06 / 04 / 18	9-11	6-14	+ -
Black sat out the last game with a stiff lower back and it is unclear if he will play against the Lakers on Tuesday.
Ryan Anderson (PF)	Prob Sat	Ankle - 03 / 04 / 18	10-12	7-15	+ -
Anderson is recovering from a left ankle sprain but is expected to play in Game 3 of the Western Conference first round against the Timberwolves.
Gerald Green (SG)	day-to-day	Leg - 01 / 04 / 18	10-13	7-16	+ -
Green exited the previous game due to a left leg injury and it is unknown if he will return.

Timberwolves vs. Rockets Game 1 Playoff Prediction