Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, NBA Odds
The Thunder sit firmly atop the Western Conference standings, while the Timberwolves are sixth and trying to stay out of the play-in mix. These teams already met once this season, with Oklahoma City earning a 113-105 win in late November behind a dominant 40-point performance from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
That first meeting was just another stunning showcase in the budding rivalry between Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards. Minnesota is healthier overall, but Oklahoma City has way more depth, and the injuries the Timberwolves are dealing with invite questions about ball security against the league’s most disruptive defence.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves NBA Betting Odds
Oklahoma City enters as a 7.5-point road favourite, with the total set at 231.5. From a betting perspective, these teams have moved in opposite directions. The Thunder are 15-12 ATS this season and 7-6 ATS on the road, while Minnesota has struggled badly at home, posting a 5-9 ATS record at the Target Center.
Turnovers are a major betting angle. Oklahoma City ranks first in defensive rating and turnover percentage, while Minnesota sits middle-of-the-pack in ball security and has been especially sloppy without its primary ball handlers. The Thunder also have a 15-12 record to the Over this season, while the Timberwolves are 13-14.
Best Bet: Thunder -7.5 & Under 231.5
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City continues to look like the most complete team in the NBA. The Thunder are 21-2 against Western Conference opponents and lead the league in defensive rating, allowing just 106.1 points per game on 42.8% shooting. Offensively, they are just as efficient, ranking fifth in offensive rating and shooting nearly 50% from the field.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the engine, averaging 32.4 points per game and extending his streak of 20+ point performances to 98 straight games. Oklahoma City is coming off a dominant 122-101 win over the Clippers, forcing 28 turnovers and scoring 38 points off those mistakes. While Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams are game-time decisions, the Thunder’s depth and perimeter defence remain elite regardless.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota enters this game shorthanded and under pressure. Mike Conley remains ruled out, while Anthony Edwards is listed as day-to-day after missing the last three games, including the Timberwolves’ 116-110 home loss to Memphis on Wednesday. Without their primary ball handlers, Minnesota’s offence has looked disjointed, committing 18 turnovers against the Grizzlies and surrendering 20 points off those mistakes.
The Timberwolves still possess shooting upside, ranking ninth in made three-pointers per game and fifth in three-point percentage at 37.6%. Julius Randle has been productive, averaging 23.0 points per game, but Minnesota’s defence is prone to fouling – a dangerous weakness against Gilgeous-Alexander, who went 15-17 from the foul line in the first meeting.
NBA Prediction: Who Will Win Thunder vs. Timberwolves?
This matchup strongly favours Oklahoma City. Even if Anthony Edwards suits up, Minnesota’s lack of reliable ball handling is a glaring issue against the Thunder’s relentless perimeter pressure. Oklahoma City forced 16 turnovers in the first meeting and has only intensified its defensive identity since then.
The Thunder are comfortable conceding three-point attempts while erasing paint scoring, second-chance points, and transition opportunities. Minnesota may hit some shots from deep, just as they did when they went 17 of 37 from three in the first meeting, but sustained offence will be difficult to generate. Expect Oklahoma City to control the game with defence, free throws, and timely scoring from Gilgeous-Alexander.
OKC
MIN