Thunder vs. Rockets Game 1 Prediction: NBA Playoff Odds, Point Spread
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Sports Interaction Staff
It’s only fitting that the Rockets and the Thunder are facing off after a blockbuster trade in the 2019 off-season saw the Rockets send Chris Paul and four draft picks to the Thunder to reunite Russell Westbrook and James Harden.
After the trade it looked like the Rockets were all in and the Thunder were in rebuild mode. Ironically, these teams finished the season with identical 44-28 records, setting the stage for the No. 4 Rockets to take on the No. 5 Thunder in a best-of-seven Western Conference first round matchup. Tipoff for Game 1 is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday night.
NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Thunder have gone 5-0 against the spread (ATS) in their last five games against Houston, while the Rockets are 7-3 straight up (SU) in their last 10 games against Western Conference opponents.
The under is 6-0 in the Rockets last six games after allowing 100 points or more in the previous game and 4-1 in the Thunder’s last five games against a team with a winning SU record
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder have been one of the biggest surprises this season after trading away Russell Westbrook in the 2019 offseason. It looked like they were in full rebuild mode after shipping out Westbrook, Paul George and Jerami Grant, but they have spent all season proving they are a crunch-time team. They have gone 30-14 in close games this season, while Chris Paul has averaged 3.5 points on 52.2 per cent shooting during crunch time.
The Thunder won two of three meetings with the Rockets this season, so if they can lock down defensively and take advantage of Houston’s small-ball game and the absence of Westbrook (at least early in the series) they have a shot to do some damage and avoid exiting the playoffs in the first round for the fourth straight year.
Houston Rockets
It’s a little ironic that the Rockets traded Chris Paul, who has struggled to stay healthy in the last few years, for Russell Westbrook, who has been a relatively healthy player, and Paul will start Game 1 while Westbrook is out for at least the first one or two games with a quad strain. With Westbrook out, the Thunder will likely shift their defensive focus to James Harden, which makes it crucial for the Rockets role players to step up. P.J. Tucker shot 35.8 per cent from three-point range in the regular season and 28.6 per cent since entering the bubble, while Robert Covington shot 33.5 per cent before the season pause and just 23.2 per cent in the bubble. Getting these players back to where they were before the pause could make the difference in this series.
Westbrook’s injury puts the pressure on James Harden to come out big in the opening game and he seems up to it after his bubble play so far. Since the season restart, Harden is averaging 34.1 points, 8.9 assists, 8.3 rebounds, 2.7 steals and 1 block per game. The Rockets have averaged 7.4 more points per game than the Thunder, this season, so even with Westbrook out, Harden has the potential to be the difference maker in Game 1 and the whole series.
OKC
HOU