The Phoenix Suns travel to Oklahoma City for a high-profile NBA Cup clash against a Thunder team that has been nothing short of historic. Oklahoma City enters at 23-1 and has won 15 straight. These teams met less than two weeks ago, when OKC edged Phoenix 123-119 behind a dominant late showing from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. 

While the Thunder are clear title favourites, the Suns have quietly established themselves as one of the best stories and grittier teams in the conference, setting up another intriguing test for the reigning champs.

Suns vs. Thunder NBA Betting Odds

Oklahoma City is installed as a massive 15.5-point favourite on the NBA odds, with the total sitting at 226.5. From a betting perspective, Phoenix has been the more trustworthy spread team, going 15-8-1 ATS, while the Thunder sit at 13-11 ATS despite their dominant straight-up record.

Oklahoma City has been an Over/Under split team (13-11 O/U), but Phoenix trends slightly toward lower-scoring games on the season (11-13 O/U). That said, matchup-specific factors lean toward Phoenix being able to keep this inside the number again, as they did in the previous meeting.

Phoenix Suns

Phoenix comes into this matchup shorthanded but confident. Devin Booker could play following a groin issue, while Jalen Green is sidelined with a hamstring injury, putting more responsibility on the supporting cast to generate offence. Dillon Brooks and Grayson Allen have been excellent counterparts for Booker, Royce O’Neale has been a steady presence, shooting over 41 per cent from three and providing reliable spacing, and Collin Gillespie has quietly become a perimeter weapon, averaging three made three-pointers over the last 10 games. 

The Suns are a top-12 team in both offensive and defensive rating. They also rely heavily on the three-point shot, connecting at a 36.8 per cent clip, which becomes a key weapon against a Thunder defence designed to erase the paint.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City continues to look like a juggernaut, even with a long injury list. Nikola Topic and Isaiah Hartenstein remain out, while Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Luguentz Dort, and even Shai Gilgeous-Alexander carry day-to-day designations. Despite that, the Thunder have gone 10-0 over their last 10 games, averaging over 125 points while holding opponents under 108.

Shai remains the engine, averaging more than 30 points and living in the paint, while Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams give OKC elite length, skill, and versatility. The Thunder dominate close games, owning by far the best clutch net rating in the league, which has made them almost unbeatable when games tighten late.

NBA Prediction: Who Will Win Suns vs. Thunder?

This matchup sets up similarly to the late-November meeting: Oklahoma City in control early, Phoenix hanging around through shot-making. The Thunder are simply the better and deeper team, and their late-game execution has been flawless all season, so backing them to win outright makes sense. 

However, the spread is enormous, and Phoenix’s three-point shooting matches up well against a Thunder defence that prioritizes paint protection above all else. The likeliest script is OKC pulling away late, but Phoenix staying competitive long enough to cash a ticket. Expect a final score in the region of 120-113 for the Thunder.

SUNS

Away

113

THUNDER

Home

120

Score
Predictions

Matchup