Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1 Prediction, NBA Finals Odds
Led by league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, there will be plenty of Canadian talent on display when the Oklahoma City Thunder meet the Indiana Pacers in the NBA Finals.
It took the Thunder seven games to dispatch Denver in the second round, but they’ve also accumulated plenty of rest after sweeping Memphis in Round 1 and beating Minnesota in five games in the Western Conference Finals. Meanwhile, the Pacers made quick work of Milwaukee and Cleveland in the first two rounds before bouncing the Knicks in a six-game Eastern Conference Finals.
OKC opens Game 1 as a 9.5-point favourite to win on the NBA odds, with the total pegged at 230.5.
Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Betting Odds
The Thunder swept the regular season series, covering the spread as a favourite in both games. Each game also hit the Over, with Oklahoma City averaging 126 points per game and Indiana averaging 113 points.
While the Thunder have covered the spread in nine straight games against Eastern Conference opponents, it’s the Pacers that enter this series as the hotter cover option. Indiana is 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games overall and 6-1 ATS in their last seven road dates.
However, Indiana will have their hands full when it comes to winning outright as OKC is 44-8 at home this year in the regular season and playoffs combined and they are riding a six-game win streak at Paycom Center.
Oddsmakers are heavily siding with the Thunder to win this series quickly. Oklahoma City is a -700 favourite to win the series on the NBA futures board, while the Pacers are +500 underdogs. The favoured exact series result is an OKC win in five games at +200. The biggest long shot is an Indiana sweep at +5000.
If you’re looking for player props, Gilgeous-Alexander is a -625 favourite to win Finals MVP. That leads to great value for Tyrese Haliburton (+700) and Pascal Siakam (+1600) for Finals MVP if you think Indiana will pull off an upset.
Indiana Pacers
When it comes to the Pacers, it all starts with Tyrese Haliburton. After a slow start to the year because of a hamstring injury, Haliburton flipped a switch in 2025, averaging 19.5 points and 9.7 assists over the final 39 regular season games. The concern is Haliburton’s ability to handle the Thunder’s elite defenders as he averaged just 12 ppg against OKC over the last two seasons, his lowest output versus any opponent in that time.
You also have to look at East Finals MVP and former Toronto Raptor Pascal Siakam. A member of the Raptors 2019 championship team, Siakam has risen to the biggest moments, including going off for 26 points and 10 rebounds in the championship-clinching Game 6 in 2019. And keep in mind, Indiana has won seven of eight games this postseason when Siakam scored 20 or more points.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Clearly no player is more important in this series than Hamilton, Ontario’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA led the Thunder to a 68-win regular season before steamrolling through the Western Conference playoff bracket with 29.8 ppg. He’s been most successful getting to the rim and operating from midrange and he’ll be a handful for Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard to guard. Gilgeous-Alexander will either torch Indiana defenders or he’ll force them into foul trouble.
Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are also key pieces of this team. Williams is coming off a monster performance in the West Finals, which saw him average 22.2 ppg on 49 per cent shooting. Holmgren also had best performance of the playoffs against Minnesota, hitting the 20-point mark in three of five games while shooting 56.7 per cent for the series. If Williams and Holmgren can come anywhere close to replicating their success from the West Finals, this could be a quick series.
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