On Saturday, the No. 6 seed Minnesota Timberwolves grabbed a surprising 3-1 series lead over the No. 3 seed Denver Nuggets in the opening round of the Western Conference playoffs, but at the cost of losing Donte DiVincenzo for the rest of the season and Anthony Edwards for the rest of the series. 

Ayo Dosunmu became Superman, scoring 43 points, and it was the Wolves’ third straight win in the series, after Denver had taken Game 1 to extend their win streak to 13. On Monday, as the series shifted back to Denver, the Nuggets pulled away in the third quarter to go up 22 and hung on to win by 12.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves NBA Betting Odds

Denver is a 5.5-point favourite to win on the NBA odds, with the total set at 225.5.

The Timberwolves are 4-4 against the spread as an underdog at home this year. The Nuggets are 12-15 against the spread as a favourite on the road, but 0-8 in their last eight.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets were able to stave off the Wolves at home and extend the series. More importantly, the Nuggets got significant production outside of Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. While the star duo combined for 51 points and 23 assists, Cameron Johnson and Spencer Jones combined for 38 points on 15-of-22 shooting. 

With Johnson and Jones gaining confidence going into Game 6, the Nuggets may be getting crucial reinforcements on the wing and in the front-court. Peyton Watson, who averaged 14.6 PPG and 4.9 REB, and who brings tremendous defensive versatility, has not played since April 1 but is a game-time decision for Game 6. 

Watson can key in on locking down Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels, and if Aaron Gordon is back, who averaged 16.2 PPG and 5.9 REB this year, the Nuggets get a clutch, tough veteran who can hit corner threes, rebound and provide strong help defence. 

Minnesota Timberwolves

Obviously, losing Edwards for the rest of the series means losing one of the game’s best alphas, a 28.8 PPG scorer, 5.0 REB and 3.7 AST guy who shot 40 per cent from downtown. In DiVincenzo, you lose the team’s second most confident shooter (37.9 per cent on 7.9 attempts per game) and another primary ball handler and playmaker (3.8 AST). 

While Bones Hyland and Terrance Shannon Jr. stepped up big time off the bench and in their absence in Game 5, combining for 30 points on 11-of-19 shooting, the Timberwolves had to run their offence more through Randle and McDaniels than they wanted. Dosunmu is the most competent ball handler and playmaker left, but more minutes for 38-year-old Mike Conley Jr. and inexperienced guys like Shannon Jr. and Hyland should mean more turnovers.

The Nuggets stole the ball 16 times in Game 5, part of 25 turnovers committed by the Wolves, which turned into 35 Nuggets points. It really doesn’t matter how efficient the Wolves shoot the rock if Randle, McDaniels and Hyland combine for 12 turnovers again.

NBA Prediction: Who Will Win Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 6?

I don’t think there’s any way the Timberwolves win this game if Gordon and Watson return, even if only one of them does. Dosunmu needs to have the ball in his hands a lot more in Game 6 and be aggressive in hunting his shot. If he can explode again while taking care of the ball, that’s Minnesota’s best chance. I just don’t trust the Minnesota offence to run smoothly without Ant and Donte, so I think the Nuggets win. 

However, with how bad Denver has been covering on the road, I think the Wolves can cover the +6.5. I also like the Over with Denver’s absurd efficiency and ability to create points in transition, and their defence isn’t good enough to keep Minnesota’s strong depth out of the scoring column. Let’s go with the Nuggets to edge it 121-117 and force a Game 7.

NUGGETS

Away

121

TIMBERWOLVES

Home

117

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