Nuggets vs. Spurs Odds, Prediction: Game 3 NBA Playoffs

Jeremy Perry | Updated Apr 18, 2019

NBA: Denver Nuggets at Orlando Magic

Paul Millsap bounced back from a poor performance in the opener to score 20 points on 7-of-10 shooting in the Denver Nuggets' Game 2 victory.

Denver
54-28
AT
April 18, 2019, 9:00 PM ET
AT&T Center
San Antonio
48-34
Pointspread +4.5 -110
Moneyline +145
Over / Under o +208

37%

Betting Action

63%

Pointspread -4.5 -110
Moneyline -170
Over / Under u +208

37%

Betting Action

63%

The San Antonio Spurs managed to earn an important split of the first two games on the road with Denver but the Nuggets have momentum. The Spurs blew a 19-point, second-half lead in Game 2. The question is did Denver finally breakthrough or did the Spurs just lose grip of one game? We’ll find out in Game 3.

NBA Playoffs Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The fact that the Nuggets were able to claw their way back from 19 points down and win Game 2 by nine points is a testament to what this team can do in terms of swinging outright results and pointspreads. However, Denver went 20-21 on the road during the regular season, which is the second-worst road record of any Western Conference playoff team behind only the Spurs. The Nuggets are just 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 games following a straight up victory. They’re also 0-7 ATS in their last seven games when their playoff series is tied.

Meanwhile, San Antonio produced one of the best home records in the NBA during the regular season at 32-9. The Spurs are 15-6-1 against the spread in their last 22 games versus teams with winning percentages above .600. They are also 27-8 ATS when revenging a loss versus an opponent.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets kept their series hopes alive by salvaging a win at home in Game 2. Momentum is on their side after climbing out of a 19-point, second-half deficit to survive. It won’t be easy on the road in a tough environment for Game 3. If Denver is going to have a chance, it will need another pair of strong performances from Jamal Murray, who snapped out of his funk in the fourth quarter. Murray scored 24 points on 8-of-17 shooting in the Game 2 victory but was ice cold until the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, Paul Millsap bounced back from a poor performance in the opener to score 20 points on 7-of-10 shooting. Millsap also chipped in seven rebounds and five assists. The Nuggets appear to be the more talented team on paper but they are young and inexperienced. Winning Game 3 would be a big part of their growth as a contender.

San Antonio Spurs

As difficult as it will be for San Antonio to move past their Game 2 loss, the reality is that there are a lot of positives they can take from that defeat. First of all, the Spurs nearly stole two games from a talented Denver team on the road. Second, they still have home-court advantage on their side after winning Game 1. The key for San Antonio will be to put that loss behind them and focus on the positives, which begin with the play of DeMar DeRozan. DeRozan, who was exiled from the Toronto Raptors after struggling in the post-season over the past few years, had 31 points on 11-of-19 shooting in the Game 2 loss. If DeRozan can play like that in Games 3 and 4, then there is a good chance the Spurs will win those games. Meanwhile, San Antonio simply needs more from LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay, who were a combined 10-29 from the field in Game 2. San Antonio was a much better team at home throughout the regular season. That has to be a factor here.

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