NBA Odds: Toronto Raptors – Bad team, good bet

It’s been a tough year for the Toronto Raptors and it likely isn’t getting any better. But, just because the Dinos aren’t racking up the wins in the standings, doesn’t mean they don’t provide great betting value. Let’s take a look at how to successfully bet the Raptors this season.

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Bad team, good bet

There’s no sugarcoating it, the Raptors just aren’t a good team. At 7-15, they sit 12th in the Eastern Conference, two games back of the final play-in tournament spot. That’s a .318 winning percentage, which puts Toronto on pace for their worst season since 2010-11 when they finished with just 22 wins under head coach Jay Triano.

The silver lining with this Raptors squad, however, is their ability to cover the number. Toronto is 15-7 against the spread after the first two months of the season, giving them a cover percentage of 68.2 per cent. That trails only the Cavaliers, Rockets and Clippers, who are all currently in a playoff position.

The Dinos have been a particularly good cover option at home, going 8-2 ATS at Scotiabank Arena. And speaking of home vs. road splits…

Road woes

Toronto is an abysmal road team this season. They’ve dropped 11 of 12 road dates, tying New Orleans for the worst road record in the NBA. Ironically, the Raptors’ lone road win of the year came against the Pelicans, which isn’t anything to brag about considering New Orleans is dead last in the Western Conference standings with a 4-18 record overall.

Toronto is 1-11 on the road, but on the flip side they actually sport a winning 6-4 home record. They’ve beat Miami, Indiana (twice), Minnesota, Sacramento and Philadelphia at home and their four home losses came against Cleveland, Denver, the Lakers and Detroit, all teams currently in a playoff position.

If you want to bet the Dinos outright, do it at home.

Points on the board

There’s also a trend when it coms to home totals. While Toronto is an even 11-11 on the Over/Under overall this season, they’ve played plenty of high scoring home games.

The Raptors have hit the Over in seven of 10 home dates, tied with Denver for the third-highest mark in the NBA. Indiana and Atlanta have the most home Overs with eight each.

That means Toronto is playing lower scoring road games, with the total going Under in eight of 12 away dates.

Take the Over for the Dinos at home, take the Under on the road.

Barrett bullies at home

If player props are more your thing, you have to circle RJ Barrett at home. The Mississauga native has hit the 30-point mark in five of eight homes games he has played this season (he had 29 on Tuesday), continuing a dominating trend from when he was traded to Toronto from the Knicks last December.

Barrett is on a historic pace when he plays at Scotiabank Arena. In 26 career home games as a Raptor, the 24-year-old is averaging 23.9 points per game, the second-highest mark of any Toronto player ever. Only Kawhi Leonard’s average of 26.5 ppg in his lone season with the Raptors, the 2018-19 championship year, beats out Barrett.

It’s still early in his career, but Barrett is better at home than franchise legends like Vince Carter, Chris Bosh, DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry.

Take the hometown kid from just up the road to come alive at Scotiabank Arena.