NBA Championship Odds, Futures: Can anyone stop the Oklahoma City Thunder?
The Oklahoma City Thunder enter the NBA playoffs with a massive target on their back. The defending champs just enjoyed an NBA-best 64-18 season, boasting a historic 11.1 net rating. For context, the next closest was the Pistons at 8.4.
Can the Spurs, Nuggets or even the underdog Timberwolves challenge the Thunder for Western supremacy, or will it be up to one of the Pistons, Celtics, Cavaliers or Knicks from the East to take them down in the NBA Finals?
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2026 NBA Championship odds
OKC, the betting favourite entering the playoffs, has won five of the last 10 NBA Finals. This recent turbulence comes in contrast to the larger body of data, which tells us that, since 1980, approximately 70 per cent of favourites entering the playoffs have won it all. It is important to note that after three straight years of favourites failing to even reach the Finals, from 2021-2023, the Celtics and Thunder both won it all as favourites in 2024 and 2025.
Since 1980, only four teams with odds of +1000 or longer have won the NBA Finals. The Houston Rockets (+1800) in 1995 and the Dallas Mavericks (+1800) in 2011 are tied for the biggest long shot winners, while the Warriors (+1000) in 2022 and the Nuggets (+1000) in 2023 round out this exclusive group.
2026 NBA Championship best bet: Oklahoma City Thunder (+115)
As much as I want to zag and make a fun pick with more value, the Thunder are the deepest and most complete team, led by one of the game’s brightest superstars in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Most importantly, this juggernaut carries zero injury designations heading into the playoffs. So, tell me, how does this team lose in a seven-game series at full strength? They won 64 games this year despite extended absences from prime SGA, who torches everyone with mid-range shooting and foul-drawing, the 7-footer Chet Holmgren, who brings elite rim protection and offensive spacing, and a two-way star in Jalen Williams, who is counted on to defend opposing stars and be the Robin to SGA’s Batman in the scoring column.
The Thunder can beat you in so many ways, and it starts with the league’s best defence – by a mile – that flusters every opponent with ball pressure and paint-negate coverages.
2026 NBA Championship long shot prediction: Denver Nuggets (+1100)
It just feels like Nikola Jokic is destined to win another title, doesn’t it?
The three-time MVP is averaging a triple-double yet again, leading the NBA’s top-ranked offence. Their path is brutal, but the Nuggets – especially Jokic – seemed to finally solve the Timberwolves this year, beating Minnesota three times. The lone loss came with Aaron Gordon out.
In a presumed Western semi-final matchup with the Spurs, the Nuggets also took three-of-four against them, and Jokic has historically owned Victor Wembanyama.
The Nuggets also played the Thunder tough every time this year, losing once in OT, another by three and then won by 20 when the Thunder were sitting players. The Nuggets enter the playoffs as hot as anyone, winning 12 straight.
NBA playoffs prediction: Atlanta Hawks to win series vs. New York Knicks (+220)
Since the All-Star break in February, the Hawks have owned the NBA’s fourth-best net rating (9.7), with a defence second to only the Thunder. They play fast, dominate the glass on both ends – thanks to Jalen Johnson – and feature an overall strong starting five. Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker can make life tough for Jalen Brunson.
The Knicks are bigger and deeper, but they have only been eighth in net rating since the All-Star break, slipping to 12th on offence. The Hawks have shot a blistering 37.4 per cent from deep the last two months, and the Knicks’ defence is often exposed by the three-point line.