Hello dear readers! Welcome to another edition of NBA Best Bets, the column in which SIA studies statistical trends that may influence how betters place their props in the near future. Read on!
As always, don’t forget to check out our NBA odds page for games, props, and NBA futures.
With the NBA All-Star break behind us, it’s time to look ahead to the regular season’s final couple of months. There is no shortage of storylines that will evolve and potentially carry over into the playoffs. Let’s get started.
Oklahoma City’s Rolling Thunder
Whether the Oklahoma City Thunder are ahead of schedule or right on time is a matter of debate. Regardless, NBA pundits and fans cannot help but notice the noise the Thunder are making out in the West. After flailing the past few seasons, OKC, under the guidance of coach Mark Daigneault, has turned things around quickly enough to be a part of the playoff conversation. At 28-29 they certainly aren’t world beaters, but since the New Year the club has gone 13-8, putting together some impressive wins in the process (such as a 150-117 obliteration of Boston). Is this really a playoff team?
Funnily enough, the fact that the Western Conference features such a tightly-knit group of rivals is both a blessing and a curse. On the one hand, if OKC can string together enough wins, they’ll leap over multiple squads in the standings. On the flip side, the Thunder is a lot like most other Western teams: they’re just not very consistent. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off an All-Star Game appearance, and for good reason: 30.8 points per game, along with 4.7 rebounds and 5.7 assists. Josh Giddey is also putting up nice numbers, especially with regard to rebounds (7.8) and assists (5.9). The next 10 days feature a critical schedule. Not only is there a game with the Lakers, a team they play well, but three (!) against the Jazz, whom they’re fighting for a play-in spot. The playoff push starts now with wins against Utah and L.A.
NBA 22/23 - To Reach the Playoffs - Oklahoma City Thunder
Come on Pelicans, Fly!
Another team in the Western Conference that’s been on many people’s lips recently is the New Orleans Pelicans, albeit for completely different reasons. Lest it is forgotten that around New Year’s, the Pelicans were in a battle for the top spot in the entire conference. They even held it for the duration of an eye blink. But then Brandon Ingram, one of the motors of last season’s brilliant second half, suffered a toe injury. Worse, and more maddening for the team’s fanbase, is another setback for Zion Williamson, who will end up missing significant minutes for the third time in four years.
Willie Green’s ensemble is now a game over .500 at 30-29, sitting in seventh in the log-jammed Western Conference. The good news is that Ingram is back and Jose Alvarado, as showcased on All-Star Weekend, is blossoming into a very interesting role player. The next few games will challenge them. Both Toronto (later tonight as of this writing) and New York (Feb. 25) have defences flirting with the top 10. Orlando on March 1 should be an easier task to deal with. Picking the Pelicans these days carries risk.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Toronto Raptors (Thursday, Feb 23 2023 7:30pm)
Dallas Mavericks Ride Strong or Rising Phoenix Suns?
The setup is too good to be true. It reads like something out of a Hollywood script that was written on the corner of a napkin. The Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns are no strangers to each other. One, they both play in the Western Conference. Two, they met in the second round of last year’s playoffs, a series that went the distance, which is when Luka Doncic and friends inflicted a supernova in their own arena. Three, they are in lockstep this season, with the Suns placed fifth and the Mavs sixth, only one game back. And of course, the pièce de resistance: Dallas has just acquired former Net Kyrie Irving and Phoenix traded for former Net Kevin Durant, scheduled to play on March 1. By the way, let’s not ignore the fact that they play on Sunday, March 5.
Who is better equipped to rank higher in the standings and possibly enjoy a more successful playoff run? We know what the Suns can accomplish when they’re healthy and firing on all cylinders. They played the Finals two seasons ago and were the top-seeded club in the West last year. We also know how scintillating Luka is and what he can provide to an otherwise mediocre squad, which it isn’t anymore now that they have Irving. If recent history shows us anything, it’s that KD can and has integrated himself efficiently into already strong units. Consider the 2016-2019 Golden State Warriors. The same cannot be said as enthusiastically about Kyrie. Just look at the 2017-2019 Boston Celtics. As such, Phoenix is better equipped to be the greater threat in the West.
NBA 22/23 - Western Conference - Winner
Will the Raptors Roar?
We would be remiss if we didn’t spend a few moments on the NBA’s lone Canadian club. The jury is definitely still out on Nick Nurse’s ensemble. The impressive back-end to the regular season that Toronto pulled out of his hat last year hasn’t commenced yet. Pascal Siakam and company are currently 10th with a 28-31 win-loss tally. Unlike in the West, 10th is not just a couple of games out of a top-four spot in the East. In fact, at the time of this writing, it’s nine games and it doesn’t look like Cleveland is going to crash and burn.
If anything can be their saving grace, it’s the defence. They sport the 11th-best defence with respect to points conceded per game. Ironically, they rank near the bottom for both field goal and three-point defensive efficiency. What they do well is prevent shots. Toronto is second-best regarding shot attempts made by the opposition with only 82.8. Look no further than OG Anunoby, who leads the NBA with 2.1 steals a night. That’s helped the Raptors rank second league-wide with 15.8 turnovers a tilt. The next 10 days are crucial. Apart from the Pelicans, they contend with the Bulls once (the team right behind them) and the Wizards twice (the team just ahead of them). With a schedule like that, it’s truly now or never for Toronto. The spirit of 2019 needs to roar in those three games.