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Jeremy Perry
Utah Jazz vs. Houston Rockets: Game 1 Prediction, NBA Playoff Odds
The Utah Jazz sprung an upset in Round 1, ousting the Oklahoma City Thunder in six games. Now they’ll get a shot at the top seed in the Western Conference when the take on the Houston Rockets. The challenge is that they are going to be without point guard Ricky Rubio, who is out for about 10 days. Can they contend with the Rockets without Rubio or will that doom them? We’ll get a good idea in Game 1 of this NBA matchup.
NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Rockets faced the Jazz three times in the regular season and won each game. Worse yet for the Jazz is that Houston scored at least 112 points each time. The good news for the Jazz is that they have covered 16 of their last 22 against teams who score 106+ points per game.
Houston has had lots of rest, which should be a factor. They are a perfect 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS when playing on three or more days’ rest.
For what it’s worth, the Jazz were 5-3 on Sundays this season and 6-2 ATS in those games. The Rockets were 11-1 SU and 7-5 ATS.
Utah Jazz
Few people take note of this but the Jazz have been one of the best teams in the NBA since the end of January. They won 28 of their final 34 games to end the regular season, which is incredible. That’s why – to many – the first-round upset wasn’t really an upset. They were a better team than Oklahoma City. Their offense was clicking – averaging a decent 105.5 points per game and their defense kept the explosive Thunder under wraps. They held them to just 101.7 points per game.
The question is can their defense slow the highest-scoring team in the NBA? The Jazz won’t be able to compete if these are shootouts. However, if these games are played in the 90’s or low 100’s, they’ll have a shot to win.
The good thing for the Jazz is their star rookie, Donovan Mitchell, has looked nothing like a rookie. He’s averaging an incredible 28.5 points per game so far in the playoffs, which puts him in Hall of Fame company. If he gets help from Joe Ingles and Rudy Gobert in Game 1, the Jazz can put a scare into the Rockets.
Houston Rockets
The Rockets should win Game 1 and this series rather easily because this isn’t a good matchup for Utah. The Jazz try to win low-scoring games but the Rockets are going to make this a shootout – especially at home. The Jazz are shorthanded as Rubio, who orchestrated their offense and contributed 14.0 points per game along with 7.3 rebounds and 7.0 assists is out with a hamstring injury. He had been playing at an elite level, so losing him and supping in Dante Exum is going to hurt. He’s going to get schooled by Chris Paul.
Beyond that, the Rockets merely have to worry about Mitchell. Other than that, the Jazz don’t really have any explosive scorers. Houston’s got a plethora of them from James Harden to Paul to Eric Gordon. They have plenty of depth too, so the Rockets should have the edge when the second teams are on the court.
The Jazz are coming off a big, emotional series win. Without Rubio in this spot, this screams of a letdown.
