The top seed in the West and the lowest seed in the East will compete for the Larry O’Brien Trophy. The NBA Finals get underway in Colorado for Games 1 and 2 on Thursday and Sunday night.

The NBA experts like the Nuggets so much in Game 1 that they’ve currently pegged Denver as a -9.0 favourite on the odds. As for the total, it’s set at 219.5.

Heat vs. Nuggets NBA Finals Betting Odds

It feels safe to argue that this matchup feels nothing like the ones that occurred during the regular season. Denver and Miami haven’t clashed since February 13 when the Nuggets won away 112-108, earning themselves a two-game season sweep over the Heat. Three and a half months have changed so much.

Even so, the series table has the Nuggets at -455 to win it all, with the Heat pinned at +325. The most likely outcome is Denver in five (+238). Miami’s best lowest price point is +743 for a 4-2 series victory.

Why nobody mentions that the Heat were the number one seed in the Eastern Conference a year ago and made it to the conference final is a mystery. They were a darn good team a season ago and still are today. They’re coached by the brilliant Erik Spoelstra and led on the court by Jimmy Butler. Keep in mind that the team is 5-1 in their past six games as underdogs. A +9.0 spread won’t bother them.

As for the Denver Nuggets, they’ve finally made it. The franchise has never partaken in an NBA Finals, and what better group of players to accomplish the feat with than this one? After so many frustrating postseason exists, either because the club underperformed or was marred in debilitating injuries, here they are, healthy and playing their best basketball. Of note, results ATS have flipped-flopped in the past five games. When Denver has been favoured they lost the game and when they were underdogs they won the game.

Miami Heat

After all they accomplished through the first two rounds of these playoffs and the first six games of the Eastern Conference final, Miami had one more beguiling moment. After relinquishing a 3-0 series lead against a Boston Celtics team many insisted had all the moment at home in Game 7, the Heat simply said “nope.”

The 103-84 victory was unequivocal. Yes, Boston’s star Jayson Tatum played on a bum ankle, but that doesn’t explain why the Heat looked so good. Caleb Martin has used this playoff run as a coming-out party of sorts. His 14.1 points per game have proven crucial time and time again, as have Bam Adebayo’s 16.8. They’ll be facing a juggernaut offence in the final, but they’re equipped defensively to hold the fort, giving up only 107.4 points a contest.

Denver Nuggets

One of the few doubts surrounding the Nuggets is that annoying question that’s asked every year under the present circumstances: will Denver be rusty come Thursday night?

By the time the Heat were taking care of the Celtics in Game 7, the Nuggets hadn’t played a minute of competitive basketball in a full week, and that was already a couple of days ago at the time of writing. But if there is anything we’ve come to learn about this 2023 Nuggets squad, it’s that a slow start in a game won’t deter them. The Lakers gave them fits often in the first half of games in the Western final, but Nuggets still earned a sweep. There is no MPV pressure on Nikola Jokic this year, Jamal Murray is healthy and playing like it’s 2020, Michael Porter Jr.’s three-point shooting is invaluable, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s championship experience gives this group a boost.

The question is: is this the team that finally halts Miami’s march?

Game 1 Prediction: Who Will Win Heat vs. Nuggets?

• Regular Season
• Playoffs

Heat Team Leaders

MIA

Points	Jimmy Butler 22.91
Assists	Jimmy Butler 5.31
Rebounds	Bam Adebayo 9.17
FG%	Cody Zeller 62.7
Steals	Jimmy Butler 1.83
Blocks	Bam Adebayo 0.81

DEN

Points	Nikola Jokic 24.49
Assists	Nikola Jokic 9.83
Rebounds	Nikola Jokic 11.84
FG%	DeAndre Jordan 76.5
Steals	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 1.47
Blocks	Aaron Gordon 0.75

MIA

Points	Jimmy Butler 26.91
Assists	Jimmy Butler 5.86
Rebounds	Bam Adebayo 9.87
FG%	Haywood Highsmith 61.5
Steals	Jimmy Butler 1.82
Blocks	Tyler Herro 1

DEN

Points	Nikola Jokic 30
Assists	Nikola Jokic 9.5
Rebounds	Nikola Jokic 13.45
FG%	DeAndre Jordan 66.7
Steals	Jamal Murray 1.5
Blocks	Nikola Jokic 1

• Regular Season
• Playoffs

Nuggets Team Leaders

MIA

Points	Jimmy Butler 22.91
Assists	Jimmy Butler 5.31
Rebounds	Bam Adebayo 9.17
FG%	Cody Zeller 62.7
Steals	Jimmy Butler 1.83
Blocks	Bam Adebayo 0.81

DEN

Points	Nikola Jokic 24.49
Assists	Nikola Jokic 9.83
Rebounds	Nikola Jokic 11.84
FG%	DeAndre Jordan 76.5
Steals	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 1.47
Blocks	Aaron Gordon 0.75

MIA

Points	Jimmy Butler 26.91
Assists	Jimmy Butler 5.86
Rebounds	Bam Adebayo 9.87
FG%	Haywood Highsmith 61.5
Steals	Jimmy Butler 1.82
Blocks	Tyler Herro 1

DEN

Points	Nikola Jokic 30
Assists	Nikola Jokic 9.5
Rebounds	Nikola Jokic 13.45
FG%	DeAndre Jordan 66.7
Steals	Jamal Murray 1.5
Blocks	Nikola Jokic 1

Injuries

Miami

Cody Zeller (PF)

Prob Wed Foot - 06 / 06 / 23

Caleb Martin (SF)

Prob Sun Illness - 03 / 06 / 23

Cody Zeller (PF)

Prob Sun Foot - 03 / 06 / 23

Gabe Vincent (SG)

Ques Mon Ankle - 28 / 05 / 23

Gabe Vincent (SG)

Ques Sat Ankle - 24 / 05 / 23

Kevin Love (PF)

Prob Tues Ankle - 21 / 05 / 23

Omer Yurtseven (C)

Ques Fri Nose - 18 / 05 / 23

Cody Zeller (PF)

Prob Wed Illness - 15 / 05 / 23

Jimmy Butler (PF)

Prob Fri Ankle - 11 / 05 / 23

Haywood Highsmith (SF)

Prob Fri Knee - 11 / 05 / 23

Denver

Jamal Murray (SG)

Ques Fri Hand - 08 / 06 / 23

Jamal Murray (SG)

Prob Tues Illness - 15 / 05 / 23

Jamal Murray (SG)

Prob Thurs Illness - 11 / 05 / 23

Aaron Gordon (PF)

Prob Sun Shoulder - 09 / 04 / 23

Jeff Green (SF)

Prob Sun Face - 09 / 04 / 23

Jamal Murray (SG)

Prob Sun Thumb - 09 / 04 / 23

Michael Porter Jr. (PF)

Prob Sun Heel - 09 / 04 / 23

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (SG)

Prob Sun Illness - 09 / 04 / 23

Reggie Jackson (PG)

Prob Sun Back - 09 / 04 / 23

Michael Porter Jr. (PF)

Prob Sat Heel - 07 / 04 / 23

Injuries

Miami

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Cody Zeller (PF)	Prob Wed	Foot - 06 / 06 / 23	1-2	1-2	+ -
Zeller is tending to a right foot sprain, but it is not expected to impact his status for Game 3 of the NBA Finals against the Nuggets.
Caleb Martin (SF)	Prob Sun	Illness - 03 / 06 / 23	1-3	1-3	+ -
Martin is nursing an illness, but it is not expected to affect his status for Game 2 for the NBA Finals against the Nuggets.
Cody Zeller (PF)	Prob Sun	Foot - 03 / 06 / 23	1-3	1-3	+ -
Zeller is tending to a right foot sprain, but it is projected that he will face the Nuggets in Game 2 of the NBA finals.
Gabe Vincent (SG)	Ques Mon	Ankle - 28 / 05 / 23	3-4	1-6	+ -
Vincent is nursing a left ankle sprain, and it remains to be seen if he will dress for Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Celtics.
Gabe Vincent (SG)	Ques Sat	Ankle - 24 / 05 / 23	4-5	2-7	+ -
Vincent is hobbled by a left ankle sprain, and it is undetermined if he will suit up against the Celtics in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals.
Kevin Love (PF)	Prob Tues	Ankle - 21 / 05 / 23	5-5	3-7	+ -
Love is nursing an ankle injury, but it is expected that he will partake in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Celtics.
Omer Yurtseven (C)	Ques Fri	Nose - 18 / 05 / 23	6-6	4-8	+ -
Yurtseven is tending to a nasal contusion, and it is uncertain if he will be active for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals versus the Celtics.
Cody Zeller (PF)	Prob Wed	Illness - 15 / 05 / 23	6-6	4-8	+ -
Zeller is ailing from an illness, but it is projected that he will be available for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals versus the Celtics.
Jimmy Butler (PF)	Prob Fri	Ankle - 11 / 05 / 23	6-7	5-8	+ -
Butler is dealing with a right ankle sprain, but he is still expected to be in the lineup for Game 6 of the Eastern Conference semifinals versus the Knicks.
Haywood Highsmith (SF)	Prob Fri	Knee - 11 / 05 / 23	6-7	5-8	+ -
Highsmith has tendinitis in his left knee, but it is not projected to affect his status ahead of the matchup against the Knicks in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference semifinals.

Denver

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Jamal Murray (SG)	Ques Fri	Hand - 08 / 06 / 23	2-1	1-2	+ -
Murray is dealing with a left hand abrasion, and it is undetermined if he will be active for Game 4 of the NBA Finals versus the Heat.
Jamal Murray (SG)	Prob Tues	Illness - 15 / 05 / 23	6-3	3-6	+ -
Murray is managing an illness, but it is expected that he will be available for Game 1 of the Western Conference finals versus the Lakers.
Jamal Murray (SG)	Prob Thurs	Illness - 11 / 05 / 23	7-3	3-7	+ -
Murray is nursing an illness, but it is forecasted that he will be available for Game 6 of the Western Conference semifinals against the Suns.
Aaron Gordon (PF)	Prob Sun	Shoulder - 09 / 04 / 23	13-8	10-10-1	+ -
Gordon is dealing with right shoulder inflammation, but it is projected that he will be in the lineup for Game 1 of the Western Conference first round versus the Timberwolves.
Jeff Green (SF)	Prob Sun	Face - 09 / 04 / 23	13-8	10-10-1	+ -
Green is hampered by a facial contusion, but it is not expected to affect his status for Game 1 of the Western Conference first round versus the Timberwolves.
Jamal Murray (SG)	Prob Sun	Thumb - 09 / 04 / 23	13-8	10-10-1	+ -
Murray is tending to a right thumb sprain, but it is not expected to affect his availability against the Timberwolves for Game 1 of the Western Conference first round.
Michael Porter Jr. (PF)	Prob Sun	Heel - 09 / 04 / 23	13-8	10-10-1	+ -
Porter is managing a left heel injury, but it is anticipated that he will take to the court versus the Timberwolves in Game 1 of the Western Conference first round.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (SG)	Prob Sun	Illness - 09 / 04 / 23	13-8	10-10-1	+ -
Caldwell-Pope is ailing from a non-COVID illness, but it is expected that the symptoms will subside in time for Game 1 of the Western Conference first round against the Timberwolves.
Reggie Jackson (PG)	Prob Sun	Back - 09 / 04 / 23	13-8	10-10-1	+ -
Jackson is hampered by lower back pain, but it is not expected to impact his status against the Kings on Sunday.
Michael Porter Jr. (PF)	Prob Sat	Heel - 07 / 04 / 23	14-9	11-11-1	+ -
Porter Jr. is hindered by a heel ailment, but he is expected to take the court against the Jazz on Saturday.