Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks Game 1 Prediction, NBA Odds

Edgar Chaput | Updated Apr 29, 2023

NBA: Miami Heat at New York Knicks

The Eastern Conference’s second-round matchup between the eighth-seeded Miami Heat and fifth-seeded New York Knicks gets underway on Sunday.

Miami
44-38
AT
April 30, 2023, 1:00 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
New York
47-35
Pointspread +4 -110
Moneyline +145
Over / Under o +211

66%

Betting Action

34%

Pointspread -4 -110
Moneyline -175
Over / Under u +211

66%

Betting Action

34%

Despite that both clubs were underdogs in the first round – considerably so in Miami’s case – each not only emerged victorious from their series but won 4-1. Many believed the Knicks-Cavaliers would be a marathon given their close proximity in the regular season standings but it ended up being mostly a sprint for the Manhattan-based side. As for the Heat-Bucks contest, well, few predicted that outcome, certainly not so swift and decisive a conclusion.

The basketball gurus have placed the Knicks as -4.5 favourites on the NBA odds with a total set at 207.5

Heat vs. Knicks NBA Playoffs Betting Odds

Miami and New York crossed paths four times this year, with New York capturing three of the outings. None was decided by more than nine points and two were won by only two points. New York was able to win of its games in Miami. For the series, New York is a slight -164 favourite.

As for covering spreads in the postseason, in the case of both clubs results have mirrored whether they outright won the game or not. If we include the Heat’s two play-in tilts, they have a 5-2 record ATS since they fell to the Hawks in the very first play-in match and lost in Game 2 against the Bucks. Interestingly, the over connected in the two play-in games but in none of the five first-round bouts.

As mentioned, the Knicks also covered when they won a match and failed to cover when they lost in round one, thus they sport a 4-1 ATS tally. The similarities don’t stop there. Just like with the Heat, the Knicks-Cavs series saw the under hit in every contest.

Miami Heat

What more can be said or written about what Erik Spoelstra’s Miami side accomplished in the initial round of the postseason? Milwaukee was pegged by many pundits to reach the NBA Finals, and possibly win it. They had home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. And yet it is the Heat who stand rather than them.

There is a “never say die” mentality to the club, most notably its standout player Jimmy Butler. He leads the NBA playoff stats with 37.6 points per game, with a bucket load of them coming in the fourth quarter whenever his team needs him most. His performances in Game 4 when the Bucks led by double digits and of course Game 5 when just kept on scoring and staring down Jrue Holiday were stunning.  Miami went through most of the series without either Tyler Herro or Victor Oladipo, meaning the onus was even more on Butler. The closest scorer was Bam Adebayo at 17.4, then Gabe Vincent at 13.0. The round-one win was surprising and impressive, but one wonders how much longer the Heat will remain in the playoffs if only Jimmy Buckets is doing the heavy lifting.

New York Knicks

Tom Thibodeau’s New York squad also took care of its round-one rival rather expediently. Many licked their chops at the prospect of Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, and RJ Barrett clashing with Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, but nothing special ever materialized. Randle, by the way, is listed as Day-to-Day at the time of writing.

The Heat could be in trouble in this series. Consider that the Knicks played brilliant lockdown defence against the Cavs in the previous round, limiting their opponents to less than 100 points in all four wins. True, Cleveland was a poor offensive unit in the regular season, but Miami was the lowest-scoring team in the NBA. Yes, they upped their game considerably in the first round, and the Knicks need to be wary of that, but by and large, if New York can do what they did to Mitchell and the Cavs, there is reason to believe they can pull off a similar performance against the Heat. Brunson leads the team in playoff points with 24.0.

Game 1 Prediction: Who Will Win Heat vs. Knicks?

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