The Cavaliers have turned this series around, playing excellent team basketball in Games 3 and 4, and taking their defense to a new level in those contests too. Can they keep that up or will home-court advantage revive the Celtics?

NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Will we finally have a close contest in Game 5? Every game in this series has been decided by nine or more.

The Cavaliers own a 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record above .600. Now they will need to figure out how to win on the road. If you subtract their four-game sweep of the Toronto Raptors in the second round, Cleveland is now 1-4 on the road this postseason. The Cavaliers are also 8-17 ATS in their last 25 road games versus teams with winning home records.

Boston falls under that category as one of the best home teams in the NBA. The Celtics are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 home games. Boston is also 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS loss. The Celtics are 9-0 at home this postseason, so this certainly projects to be a tough test for Cleveland on the road.

Cleveland Cavaliers

LeBron James has been an absolute monster for the Cavaliers in their last two wins. After recording 27 points and 12 assists in a Game 3 win, LeBron put up even better numbers in Game 4 when he scored a game-high 44 points with five rebounds and three assists. The key is that he hasn’t had to do this alone. Kyle Korver has 28 points in the last two games after totaling just 16 in Games 1 and 2. George Hill has 26 in the last two contests versus just eight in Games 1 and 2. And J.R. Smith has 20 points in total in the last two games after posting a total of four in the first two. If these guys continue to provide James with support, the Cavs are going to be in this.

The other key will be their defense. The Celtics shot 51.2% in Game 1 and 43.5% in Game 2, but have been at 41.2% or worse in the last two contests. To keep this close, the Cavs need to keep them under wraps like they did at home.

Boston Celtics

Boston’s chances to bounce back in Game 5 will depend largely on the team’s defensive performance. The Celtics held the Cavaliers to an average of 88.5 points in back-to-back wins to open the series. They allowed Cleveland to average 113.5 points per game in their two losses. Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. Slowing down the Cavaliers offense will be key to rebounding with a win in Game 5.

Meanwhile, the Celtics will need their best players to step up and perform at a high level offensively as well. Specifically, Al Horford – a veteran – will have to lead the way. He averaged 17.5 points per game in Games 1 and 2 while shooting 56.5% from the field. Those numbers fell to 11.0 and 41.1% on the road and that won’t cut it. Almost all of the Celtics faded on the road. The good news is that they’re at home for Game 5 and they have yet to lose a home game this postseason.

Injuries

Cleveland

JR Smith (SG)

Ques Mon Illness - 06 / 05 / 18

George Hill (PG)

Prob Tues Back - 01 / 05 / 18

Rodney Hood (SG)

Prob Wed Personal - 18 / 04 / 18

Kyle Korver (SG)

Prob Wed Illness - 16 / 04 / 18

Tristan Thompson (C)

Prob Sun Personal - 13 / 04 / 18

Jose Calderon (PG)

Prob Mon Hamstring - 05 / 04 / 18

Jeff Green (SF)

Prob Tues Illness - 23 / 03 / 18

Larry Nance Jr. (PF)

Ques Fri Hamstring - 14 / 03 / 18

Cedi Osman (SF)

Prob Wed Hip - 10 / 03 / 18

LeBron James (SF)

Prob Tues Leg - 12 / 02 / 18

Boston

Marcus Smart (PG)

Prob Thurs Thumb - 01 / 05 / 18

Marcus Morris (PF)

Prob Sat Thigh - 27 / 04 / 18

Greg Monroe (C)

Ques Tues Illness - 17 / 04 / 18

Terry Rozier (PG)

Prob Sun Finger - 12 / 04 / 18

Guerschon Yabusele (PF)

Prob Wed Knee - 08 / 04 / 18

Shane Larkin (PG)

Prob Fri Illness - 02 / 04 / 18

Jabari Bird (SG)

Prob Sun Back - 14 / 03 / 18

Daniel Theis (PF)

out for season Knee - 11 / 03 / 18

Aron Baynes (C)

Prob Mon Elbow - 23 / 02 / 18

Al Horford (PF)

Ques Sat Head - 24 / 01 / 18

Injuries

Cleveland

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
JR Smith (SG)	Ques Mon	Illness - 06 / 05 / 18	7-6	6-7	+ -
Smith is ailing from an illness and it is unknown if he will play in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference semifinals against the Raptors.
George Hill (PG)	Prob Tues	Back - 01 / 05 / 18	8-7	8-7	+ -
Hill is nursing back soreness but is expected to suit up for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals against the Raptors.
Rodney Hood (SG)	Prob Wed	Personal - 18 / 04 / 18	9-12	9-12	+ -
Hood is likely to suit up against the Pacers in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference first round despite a personal matter.
Kyle Korver (SG)	Prob Wed	Illness - 16 / 04 / 18	9-12	9-12	+ -
Korver is dealing with an illness but is expected to play against the Pacers in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference first round.
Tristan Thompson (C)	Prob Sun	Personal - 13 / 04 / 18	9-13	9-13	+ -
Thompson is away from the team due to the birth of his child but is expected to play against the Pacers in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first round.
Jose Calderon (PG)	Prob Mon	Hamstring - 05 / 04 / 18	12-14	12-14	+ -
Calderon has sat out the last two games due to a sore left hamstring but is expected to be available for Monday's contest against the Knicks.
Jeff Green (SF)	Prob Tues	Illness - 23 / 03 / 18	18-15	14-19	+ -
Green sat out the last game with whooping cough but is likely to play Tuesday against the Heat.
Larry Nance Jr. (PF)	Ques Fri	Hamstring - 14 / 03 / 18	20-18	18-20	+ -
Nance Jr. has been held out of the previous four games with tightness in his right hamstring and it is unclear if he will return for Friday's matchup against the Suns.
Cedi Osman (SF)	Prob Wed	Hip - 10 / 03 / 18	21-19	18-22	+ -
Osman has been sidelined with a left hip strain but is likely to return against the Hornets on Wednesday.
LeBron James (SF)	Prob Tues	Leg - 12 / 02 / 18	25-24	22-27	+ -
James suffered a leg injury in the previous game but is expected to play Tuesday against the Thunder.

Boston

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Marcus Smart (PG)	Prob Thurs	Thumb - 01 / 05 / 18	7-4	5-6	+ -
Smart is dealing with an injured thumb but is expected to be available for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference semifinals against the 76ers.
Marcus Morris (PF)	Prob Sat	Thigh - 27 / 04 / 18	8-5	6-7	+ -
Morris is battling a thigh injury but is expected to be available for Game 7 of the Eastern Conference first round against the Bucks.
Greg Monroe (C)	Ques Tues	Illness - 17 / 04 / 18	12-6	10-8	+ -
Monroe is ailing from an illness and it is uncertain if he will play against the Bucks in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference first round.
Terry Rozier (PG)	Prob Sun	Finger - 12 / 04 / 18	13-6	11-8	+ -
Rozier is dealing with a finger injury but is expected to be available for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first round against the Bucks.
Guerschon Yabusele (PF)	Prob Wed	Knee - 08 / 04 / 18	14-8	14-8	+ -
Yabusele has sat out the last two games due to a knee injury but is expected play Wednesday against the Nets.
Shane Larkin (PG)	Prob Fri	Illness - 02 / 04 / 18	16-9	16-9	+ -
Larkin has been absent from the lineup during the previous two games due to an illness but is expected to play Friday against the Bulls.
Jabari Bird (SG)	Prob Sun	Back - 14 / 03 / 18	22-12	18-16	+ -
Bird has missed the last two games with a back injury but is likely to play against the Pelicans on Sunday.
Daniel Theis (PF)	out for season	Knee - 11 / 03 / 18	23-12	19-16	+ -
Theis had season-ending surgery after suffering a torn left meniscus.
Aron Baynes (C)	Prob Mon	Elbow - 23 / 02 / 18	28-14	24-17-1	+ -
Baynes missed the last game with left elbow soreness but is expected to suit up for Monday's matchup with the Grizzlies.
Al Horford (PF)	Ques Sat	Head - 24 / 01 / 18	35-19	30-23-1	+ -
Horford sat out the last game due to a head injury and his status for Saturday's contest against the Warriors is uncertain.

Cavaliers vs. Celtics Game 5 Prediction