Bucks vs. Lakers Prediction: NBA Odds, Point Spread

Jeremy Perry | Updated Mar 05, 2020

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The Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Lakers will clash on Friday in what could very well end up being a preview of the NBA Finals.

Milwaukee
56-17
AT
March 06, 2020, 10:30 PM ET
Staples Center
L.A. Lakers
52-19

Both teams are in first place in their respective conferences and both teams are favored to advance to the finals, according to the odds.

The two teams have already squared off once this season when the Bucks hosted, and they edged the Lakers 111-104 in that contest back on December 19th. Can they earn the season sweep and send a message to the Lakers?

NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis

The Bucks are an incredible 53-9 on the season and are 36-26 against the spread. They’re 14-8 against teams with a winning record but are just 11-11 ATS in those contests. They’re a perfect 7-0 against Pacific Division opponents, including 5-2 ATS.

The Lakers are 47-13 on the year and are 33-26 ATS. They are 14-4 when at home with a total of 220 or higher and 11-6 ATS. They are 16-9 against teams with a winning record, covering the spread in 14 of those contests.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks lost in Miami on Monday but quickly bounced back on Wednesday with a 119-100 win over Indiana. That maintains their perfect streak so far this season of never having lost back-to-back games. Monday’s effort was shaky – and possibly a sign of things to come – as they were outscored badly from three. Miami scored 54 points from beyond the arc while the Bucks had just 21. We know that the Bucks are generally a solid defensive team as they give up the second-fewest points per game but a lot of that is because of the muscle they have in the paint. At the three-point line, it’s another story.

The Bucks are ranked 17th in the NBA in terms of opponent three-point field goal percentage (35.6%), which is not very good. If the playoffs started today, that would be the third-worst mark among the 16 playoff contestants. The good news is the Lakers aren’t great from three as they’re just 14th in three-point field goal percentage. That should help the Bucks big-time on Friday.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are on a roll right now as they’ve won 11 of their last 13 games. They’ve been running through teams two as they haven’t played many close contests. They won by two over the Boston Celtics last Sunday but outside of that, each of last six wins have come by eight or more.

The story of this matchup is quite simply as the Lakers have two superstars and a shaky cast, while the Bucks have just one superstar and a much better supporting cast. Anthony Davis and LeBron James had 57 points in the first meeting and Danny Green had 21, hitting seven-of-12 from three-point range. The rest of the team had a total of 26 points while shooting 39% from the field. The Lakers need more from the bench guys as the entire unit contributed just four points in the first matchup.

Who Will Win Bucks vs. Lakers?

NBA Predictions
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