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Jeremy Perry
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics: Game 1 Prediction, NBA Playoff Odds
The Celtics are banged up and without star guard Kyrie Irving (and Gordon Hayward). Can the young Bucks stun the Celtics in the opening round? Let’s take a closer look at Game 1.
NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The two teams split the season series, both winning once at home and on the road. The playoffs will be a different animal, though, which likely will impact the Bucks more than the Celtics. Boston has the better coach and home-court advantage.
The Bucks are just 7-14 ATS & SU in their last 21 against teams with a winning record. The Celtics were 24-14 ATS against teams above .500. The Celtics also went 31-12 SU against teams that allow 106 points per game or more. The Bucks allow 106.8.
Milwaukee Bucks
It’s hard to figure out this Bucks team. At times this season, they’ve looked like a team that could be challenging for the Eastern Conference crown in a year or two. At other times, they barely look like they’re good enough to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, they head into the playoffs look more like the latter than the former. They were 32-24 on February 13th after having won nine of 11. Since that time, they are just 12-14.
The good news for Milwaukee is that the Celtics are also young and short on playoff experience. Guys like Terry Rozier, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum will be called upon to play big minutes but they haven’t really done that before. If the Celtics stars were playing, this probably wouldn’t be a close game or series. With everyone out, this could be more of a coin toss.
Boston Celtics
The Celtics should take Game 1 for two reasons: their defense and the home-court advantage. Milwaukee was just 19-22 on the road this season. Those 19 road wins are the fourth-fewest of any team in either conference. On the flip side, the Celtics were 27-14 at home this season. They allowed just 100.4 points per game this season and 100.7 at home. Both were good for the third-best mark in the NBA. While there are concerns with the injuries, most of those relate to the offense. This team will be very strong at the defensive end.
With the Bucks, the issues is that they’re the opposite of the Celtics: they don’t have team chemistry. Eric Bledsoe doesn’t seem to fit in at times and Giannis Antetokounmpo doesn’t always perform like a superstar. He averaged just 19.0 points per game in April, significantly down from the 27.5 he averaged the month before. Look for the Celtics to clamp down on him and force the other Bucks to beat him.
