2022 NBA Draft Odds, Prediction: Smith, Holmgren, Banchero Lead the Way

The NBA Finals are over and NBA draft week has arrived.  The 2022 NBA draft is a bit of a question mark as teams prepare for the first round at Barclay’s Center in Brooklyn on Thursday.  The pandemic stunted the development of many top players in some way, so there could be a lot of movement leading up to Thursday based on potentially varying scouting reports between teams.

Outside of the top-three, this draft is wide open.  Last year the Toronto Raptors made a bold move with the surprise selection of Scottie Barnes at No. 4 overall.  Barnes went on to win Rookie of the Year and lead the Dino’s to the playoffs.  Every NBA team saw that gamble pay off big for Toronto, so there could be a few executives more willing to gamble in this unpredictable year.

Take a look as Sports Interaction previews the top-five favoured players to be picked in the draft and projects where they will actually end up.

Jabari Smith Jr.

Favoured to be selected: First overall

A 19-year-old forward out of Auburn, Jabari Smith Jr. is the consensus first overall pick.  While not necessarily as much of a lock to go No. 1 as previous first overall picks in recent years, I don’t see anyone else enticing enough to move ahead of Smith.  The biggest upside of Smith is his elite shooting and strong defence, both of which are essentials on any contending team.  He’s likely not a No. 1 scoring option, but he has the potential to provide solid depth scoring in the right situation, much like Andrew Wiggins in Golden State.

Smith is a player who can make an impact right away, although he’s likely a few years away from building enough strength and athleticism to really take over games on a consistent basis.  He’s a fairly safe bet to turn into a productive NBA player and there’s not much downside to his game.

Sports Interaction projected selection: First overall, Orlando Magic

Chet Holmgren

Favoured to be selected: Second overall

Chet Holmgren, the 20-year-old centre from Gonzaga, is the only realistic threat to overtake Smith at first overall.  Despite his skinny frame, Holmgren is already an elite defender who can push the tempo and shoot from a distance.  He has a high basketball IQ and after his body fills out, he’ll be a nightmare for teams to contain.

Offensively, Holmgren is a good shooter who can handle the ball and make smart plays.  He’s also competitive and unselfish, intangibles that teams seem to be relying more on when making decisions in recent drafts.  If Holmgren is still available at No. 2, which he likely will be, he slots in perfectly to OKC’s lineup.  Holmgren is the most complete player in the draft and he’ll be a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year contender if he can develop his size and strength.

Sports Interaction projected selection: Second overall, Oklahoma City Thunder

Paolo Banchero

Favoured to be selected: Third overall

The only other player who looks like a lock at their pre-draft projection is 19-year-old forward Paolo Banchero out of Duke.  An offensive generator, Banchero is one of the stronger shooters in the draft and an elite passer.  Banchero punishes smaller players in mismatches and would be a headache for opposing teams if he ends up with Jalen Green in Houston.

Banchero has the ability to carry an offence, but his ability to defend can be a hurdle to his team’s success.  His movement in space and poor closeouts will be a liability in the NBA, so working on that is key to his development if he wants to be the No. 1 option on a team.  Banchero’s two-way game isn’t as complete as Smith or Holmgren, but he’s the only other player in the draft who has as much potential to help his team succeed.

Sports Interaction projected selection: Third overall, Houston Rockets

Jaden Ivey

Favoured to be selected: Fourth overall

Jaden Ivey is definitely not a lock to go to Sacramento at No. 4.  The 20-year-old guard out of Purdue ranks high on athleticism, but he has issues that will need to be fixed.  He’s not a true project player because he has the ability to make an impact right away, but teams picking him will do so with the intent to really work on coaching him and fixing some of his defensive lapses.

Thanks to a large frame a top-tier athleticism, Ivey is able to use his strength, power and speed to separate from defenders, although he lacks a certain awareness that coaches will need to work with him on.  Sacramento has taken multiple guards in recent drafts and unless they trade the fourth overall pick, taking Ivey seems redundant.

Sports Interaction projected selection: Fifth overall, Detroit Pistons

Shaedon Sharpe

Favoured to be selected: Fifth overall

Sharpe, a 19-year-old forward out of Kentucky, has the biggest chance to fall in the draft out of the top-five favourites.  The London, Ontario native graduated high school early and signed with Kentucky as the No. 1 high school recruit in 2022.  His original intention was to redshirt in 2021-22 and play in 2022-23, but he declared for the 2022 draft and never played a college game.

Sharpe is ranked high in the draft, but he’s a massive gamble.  He drives transition play, is a terrific shot generator and has elite athleticism.  The problem is, Sharpe hasn’t played past the high school and EYBL levels.  Sharpe has a huge ceiling, but he’s never played against older college or professional players and he’s just too much of a gamble to take in the top-10.  OKC also picks 12th overall, so if they keep that pick and the second overall selection, Sharpe might be worth the gamble as the Thunder’s second first round pick.

Sports Interaction projected selection: 12th overall, Oklahoma City Thunder