UFC on Fox 10 Picks: Bet Underdog Punk vs. Benson Henderson?

You have to hand it to the UFC. Over the last year or so, this organization has put together some excellent cards, giving fight fans a good show at least a couple times a month. That’s not easy to do. How many meaningful boxing matches have you watched in the past two years?

This UFC on Fox 10 event at the United Centre in Chicago has the makings to be another crowd-pleaser. Check out all of Sports Interaction’s MMA odds here.

Josh Thompson +250 vs. Benson Henderson -333

You knew Benson Henderson was going to be the favorite here, but Thompson isn’t getting nearly enough respect with this line. Thompson is still known as the Punk even though he’s 35 years old and his reputation precedes him. He is 20-5 in pro MMA fights and is coming off an impressive knockout of Nate Diaz in his return to the UFC after a long run with Strikeforce. He has a dangerous combination of striking power and submissions that will keep Henderson on high alert. Benson was on a major roll before being submitted by Anthony Pettis to lose his belt and you know Henderson will come into this fight well prepared. Both of these fighters will be ready to go the distance and it looks more like a pick ‘em to me than Henderson as a -333 favorite. In this case, it’s hard not to take a shot with an underdog who has a pile of experience and knockout power. I say the Punk pulls off the upset here, likely by decision.

Pick: Thompson

Gabriel Gonzaga +185 vs. Stipe Miocic -244

Here’s another line that has me scratching my head a bit. Gonzaga has won five of his last six and has finished each of his wins since returning to the UFC in 2012. He has big knockout power in his hands and will have a size advantage over Miocic. Meanwhile, Miocic is a quick heavyweight and clearly has the upper hand from an athletic perspective. So, this one is going to come down to Gonzaga’s size and power against Miocic’s speed and athleticism. This is close to a toss-up for me but I’m going with Miocic. He picked apart Roy Nelson in his last fight and that fight will go a long way in making him more comfortable against Gonzaga.

Pick: Miocic

Adriano Martins +180 vs. Donald Cerrone -238

You just never know what you’re going to get from Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone. He’s alternated wins and losses in his last five fights and even thought about retiring during that stretch. Cerrone loves to make headlines. He talks a lot about his love for bullriding and wakeboarding and told reporters recently that he hadn’t even watched Martins’ previous fights. Whether that’s true or not is of course debatable, but you have to know what you’re getting into if you’re betting Cerrone as a -238 favorite here. This is just the second UFC appearance for Martins, but he’s 25-6 in his MMA career and his entire family is steeped min mixed martial arts. This is a huge opportunity for him and he calls the fight a “shortcut to the top 10.” He’s not the type of fighter to let that pass him by. As long as Martins can stay away from Cerrone’s bombs, he’ll be in the mix until the end in this one. If you’re looking for another underdog, Martins has value. You might want to look at the Brazilian to win by submission closer to the fight.

Pick: Martins