UFC Fight Night Odds: Michael Chiesa vs. Neil Magny Prediction

There is a logjam atop the UFC welterweight division, with Michael Chiesa and Neil Magny looking to gain some separation when the square off at UFC Fight Island 8 on Wednesday.

There is no shortage of fighters looking to get a crack at Kamaru Usman’s welterweight belt, with Chiesa and Magny both trying to climb higher on that list. While the winner of this fight won’t get the next title shot, they will be one or two more wins away from facing the champion in the biggest fight of their lives.

For this fight, Magny is a -135 favourite on the UFC odds, while Michael Chiesa is a +105 underdog.

Michael Chiesa UFC Fight Island 8 Odds

Chiesa (17-4) is yet another fighter who looks close to getting a title shot in an extremely competitive welterweight division. Previously fighting at lightweight, Chiesa has looked much more comfortable since the 15 pound jump up to welterweight in 2018 and he has yet to lose in the division. Although he only fought once in 2020, Chiesa has looked nearly impossible to beat on his current three fight win streak, submitting Carlos Condit at UFC 232 in December 2018 and picking up unanimous decisions over Diego Sanchez at UFC 239 in July 2019 and Rafael dos Anjos in January 2020.

The move to welterweight was the best thing for Chiesa’s grappling-heavy style. With his improved striking since the move, he is able to blend combinations into takedowns along the fence seamlessly. Chiesa averages 3.84 takedowns per 15 minutes (compared to 2.55 for Magny) on 51 per cent takedown accuracy (compared to 44 per cent for Magny) with a 68 per cent takedown defence (compared to 58 per cent for Magny).   As soon as he notices his opponents begin to fade he is adept at finding submission opportunities, averaging 1.08 submissions per 15 minutes and picking up 11 of his 17 wins by submission.

Neil Magny UFC Fight Island 8 Odds

The No. 9 ranked UFC welterweight, Magny (24-8) had a busy year in 2020.  After returning from a 16-month layoff, Magny picked unanimous decision victories over Li Jingliang, Anthony Rocco Martin and former welterweight champion Robbie Lawler, last year. A staple of the UFC welterweight division since 2013, this is a make-or-break year for Magny if he wants to move into title contention. If he can pull off two or three more convincing wins, he should be able to set himself up for a shot at the belt by the end of the year.

Magny is one of the more well-rounded fighters of the welterweight division and is equally as likely to knockout his opponent as he is to submit them. He averages almost twice as many significant strikes landed per minute as Chiesa (Magny averages 3.95, Chiesa averages 2.07), is more accurate with his strikes (47 per cent for Magny, 39 per cent for Chiesa) and has a better striking defence (57 per cent for Magny, 52 per cent for Chiesa). One of Magny’s major advantages is his 4.5-inch longer reach. His opponent like to apply aggressive forward pressure, so how Magny manages the distance in this fight could be the biggest determining factor in the outcome.

UFC Fight Island Prediction: Chiesa vs. Magny

There is no clear-cut favourite in this fight. Magny and Chiesa are both well-rounded, top-10 fighters, who look ready to make the leap into title contention. This is the biggest fight of both their careers and a clear and strong method of victory will bump the winner within a fight or two of a title shot. Neither of these fighters are knockout artists, so expect a detailed game plan from both. Magny’s long reach advantage is a major factor and if he is able to properly manage the distance from Chiesa, expect to see Magny come out with a fourth straight unanimous decision victory.