Edgar Chaput
June 1, 2023

Alex Caceres vs Daniel Pineda: UFC Fight Night Odds

Featherweight fights don’t mean light punches. Alex Caceres and Danial Pineda are set to do battle on the main card at UFC Fight Night on June 2. It’s a big battle on a big stage between fighters from big states: Texas and Florida.

The MMA pundits believe that Caceres has a slight advantage in this case, awarding him a -190 price point on the MMA odds.

Alex Caceres -190
Daniel Pineda +145

Alex Caceres UFC Fight Night Odds

The 34-year-old southpaw Miami native comes into this bout with a decent 20-13 record. The one who likes going by the name “Bruce Leeroy” – a very deep cut gag about an 1980s American martial arts flick – hasn’t engaged in a bout since last December. There was a battle versus Nate Landwehr scheduled for March at UFC on ESPN 43, but Caceres withdrew for unknown reasons.

Prior to that was the aforementioned December bout at UFC Fight Night 216 against Julian Erosa. The latter was even favoured to win but Caceres got the better of him thanks to a perfect takedown in the first round. It earned the Floridian Performance of the Night honours. Other than that, we have to go 15 months ago to March of last year when Sodiq Yusuf defeated Caceres thanks to a unanimous decision.

“Featherweight” is right when it comes to “Bruce Leeroy.” Weighing only 145.00 lbs, it’s his height and reach that may serve him best in this instance. He has three inches over Pineda (five feet 10 to five feet seven) and a slightly superior reach of 73.5 inches to 69. He mostly relies on judges for victories, with 43 per cent of them earned in that manner, 35 per cent via submissions and the remaining 20 per cent with good old fashioned KO and TKO. With extra nimbleness comes speed, and he lands 4.16 significant hits per minute to Pineda’s 3.32. His defence is also superior (64 per cent to 48). Interestingly, even though he only performs 0.57 takedowns every 15 minutes, his accuracy is a solid 70 per cent.

Daniel Pineda UFC Fight Night Odds

Dallas-born and now training out of Houston, the Texan sports an impressive 28-14 win-loss tally at the time of writing. The Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt welder hasn’t had the smoothest ride to this latest edition of UFC Fight Night.

Granted, his most recent experience in the octagon went well. Tucker Lutz and he went toe-to-toe this past March at UFC on ESPN 43 – the same event for which Caceres has to cancel. Pineda earned the spoils thanks to a guillotine choke submission in the sophomore round.

Before that was a stretch of trials and tribulations, all of which resulted in a lack of fighting time. A bout versus Jamail Emmers at UFC on ESPN 36 in March 2022 had to be scrapped entirely for undisclosed reasons. There was also a suspension ordained by UFC after a urine sample test revealed banned substance amphetamine in the fighter’s system.

As previously stated, Daniel Pineda – nicknamed “The Pit” – may not have a height advantage, but he is a bit heavier, coming in at 159.00 lbs. A bit of extra muscle mass in a fight like this could prove useful. As for victory stratagems, Pineda excels at vanquishing his foes via submission, with 68 per cent of his wins coming that way. KO and TKO provide the remaining 32 per cent and none at all via decision. Both he and Caceres suffer very few major hits per 60 seconds (3.03 for Pineda and 2.92 for Caceres), but “The Pit” doesn’t land nearly as many with only 3.32. In contrast to his opposite number, Pineda attempts more takedowns per 15 minutes (1.47) but his accuracy is only 24 per cent.