UFC Fight Night 202 Odds: Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green Prediction
The UFC is back in Las Vegas on Saturday night for Fight Night 202. The main card will conclude with a catchweight bout at 160 pounds between No. 4 lightweight contender Islam Makhachev and unranked Bobby Green. Makhachev was originally scheduled to put his nine-fight win streak on the line against Beneil Dariush, before Dariush pulled out late with an ankle injury. It’s a quick turnaround for Green, who took the fight on two weeks notice and last fought on Feb. 12.
Makhachev is a heavy -725 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Green is a +470 underdog.
Islam Makhachev UFC Fight Night 202 Odds
Makhachev (21-1 MMA record) has steadily climbed the lightweight rankings since his UFC debut in 2015. His only career loss was a first-round knockout against Adriano Martins seven years ago and he’s rattled off nine consecutive wins since then. The 30-year-old had three submission wins last year against Drew Dober, Thiago Moises and Dan Hooker.
Makhachev is a sambo specialist who trains closely with former UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov. He fights with a ferocious ground-and-pound style and he’s a great wrestler with strong submission skills. Makhachev’s grappling is considerably superior. He averages 3.37 takedowns per 15 minutes with 66 per cent accuracy compared to 1.36 takedowns with 38 per cent accuracy for Green.
The best strategy for Makhachev in this fight is to use his relentless wrestling to wear Green down. Look for Makhachev to not just try to win, but dominate. A win against Dariush could have secured him a title shot, so he knows he’ll need a lopsided performance on Saturday to stand out. Winning by decision doesn’t move Makhachev up the later, so he’ll likely be going for a fourth straight submission win.
Bobby Green UFC Fight Night 202 Odds
Green (29-12-1 MMA record) is a veteran of 18 UFC fights since debuting in 2013. He won his first four fights in the Octagon and has compiled a 10-7-1 record. This is actually Green’s first headlining fight in nearly a decade with the UFC. The 35-year-old closed out 2021 with a first-round TKO win over Al Iaquinta at UFC 268 and he’s only two weeks removed from a unanimous decision win against Nasrat Haqparast at UFC 271.
“King” is 5-2 in his last seven fights and he crushed Haqparast on Feb. 12, finishing with a 188-76 advantage in significant strikes. Green is a well-rounded fighter who is a strong wrestler and accurate striker. The main concern is Green obviously hasn’t had a training camp to prepare and despite his wrestling skill, Makhachev is on a completely different level.
Green’s best bet in this fight is to stay off the ground. He’s the better striker and lands 5.91 significant strikes per minute compared to 2.21 for Makhachev. Green’s high output, however, can be deceiving as it translates to volume strikes, not signifcant impacts. In his last 16 fights dating back to 2013, he has just one win by stoppage. A lucky shot might be Green’s only hope in this fight.
UFC Fight Night 202 Prediction: Makhachev vs. Green
Give props to Green for taking this fight on short notice, but don’t expect him to take down Makhachev, who is so close to a title shot he can taste it. Makhachev wins by second-round submission.