UFC 317 Odds, Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France
Alexandre Pantoja is a -275 favourite on the MMA odds, while Kai Kara-France is a +210 underdog for the scheduled five-rounder.
Alexandre Pantoja UFC 317 Odds
The 35-year-old Pantoja, from MMA-mad Brazil, is 29-5 in his professional career and a former Resurrection Fighting Alliance flyweight champion. He landed in the UFC soon after winning that RFA belt, debuting in January 2017 against Eric Shelton and winning by split decision.
“The Cannibal” was on a three-fight winning streak when he got his first UFC flyweight title shot against Brandon Moreno (in a rematch) at UFC 290 and he won via split decision as a solid underdog. Pantoja has since successfully defended against Brandon Royval (unanimous decision), Steve Erceg (unanimous decision) and Kai Asakura (technical submission).
Asakura, a former two-time Rizin bantamweight champion, was making his UFC debut but was put out cold with a rear-naked choke. Asakura was basically signed by the UFC to give Pantoja a fresh challenge because he already had beaten the No. 1 ranked flyweight Roval twice in his career and No. 2 Moreno three times.
The 5-foot-5 Pantoja has a reach of 67 inches and his bouts average 12:39. He lands 4.41 significant strikes per minute with 50 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.92 with 50 per cent defence. His takedown average is 2.74 per 15 minutes with 47 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 68 per cent.
Pantoja has 11 overall wins by submission, 10 by decision and eight by KO/TKO – all five losses are via the judges. His seven stoppage victories in UFC flyweight competition are tied for third-most in divisional history and his five submission victories are tied with Demetrious Johnson for most in divisional history. Pantoja after his last win over Asakura called out the retired Johnson to return to fighting but to no avail.
For Saturday, the Brazilian’s favoured method of victory is by decision at +175, followed by submission at +200 and KO/TKO/DQ at +450. To win in Round 1, which Pantoja last did in July 2022 vs. Alex Perez, he’s +500. The fight ending in a draw is +5000.
Kai Kara-France UFC 317 Odds
The 32-year-old Kara-France from New Zealand, is ranked No. 4 in the UFC flyweight division and has a career mark of 25-11 with one no-contest. He once won a flyweight title at something called Bragging Rights 7 back in 2015.
This will be Kara-France’s second UFC title shot. At UFC 277 for the interim belt, he was a solid underdog against Brandon Moreno and lost via third-round TKO (body kick and punches). Since then, “Don’t Blink” has only fought twice, losing to Amir Albazi in June 2023 and then beating Steve Erceg in August 2024 via first-round TKO (punches).
Not sure there is much you can take from when Pantoja beat Kai-France via two-round unanimous decision at “The Ultimate Fighter Season 24 Quarterfinals” way back in 2016. But naturally, Kai-France is confident he will come out via knockout this time around.
“Stylistically, this is a tough matchup, not just for myself but for him as well,” Kara-France said to reporters. “If he tries to get me to the ground, he can’t keep me there. I’m too quick, I’m too fast. I’ve got one of the best takedown defences in this flyweight division. Pantoja’s biggest weakness is that he will be too stubborn, and he will try to walk me down, and eventually, he will get sloppy.”
The 5-foot-4 Kara-France has a reach of 69 inches and his bouts average 12:19. He lands 4.56 significant strikes per minute with 39 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.22 with 65 per cent accuracy. His takedown average is 0.61 per 15 minutes with 33 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 88 per cent. Kara-France has 12 wins by KO/TKO, 10 by decision and three by submission.
His eight knockdowns landed in UFC flyweight competition are second-most in divisional history. For Saturday, Kara-France’s favoured method of victory is by decision at +400, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +650 and submission at +3000. To win in Round 1, which happened last time in the Octagon, he’s +2000.
That the fight goes the full five rounds is -105 with no at -130.