UFC 300 Odds and Prediction: Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundage

The main card of UFC 300 from Las Vegas on Saturday night begins at 10 p.m. ET, and the first fight on it is an all-American matchup at middleweight as Bo Nickal faces Cody Brundage with Nickal a massive -2000 favourite on the MMA odds and Brundage at +950.

UFC 300 Odds: Bo Nickal

Dricus Du Plessis is the current UFC middleweight champion, and the 28-year-old Nickal is unranked in the division with a 5-0 professional record. He fights out of State College, Pa., which is the home to Penn State University. Nickal was a three-time NCAA Division I wrestling national champion with the Nittany Lions and three-time Big Ten Conference champion. Nickal also won the 2019 U23 World Championship in wrestling and was a finalist at the 2020 USA Olympic Team Trials.

His MMA career began only in 2022. Nickal’s debut was a first-round KO (punches) of John Noland in Jorge Masvidal’s iKon Fighting Championship 3. Nickal has been in the UFC since, with two wins in Dana White’s Contender Series to get onto the official roster. He beat Jamie Pickett by first-round submission (arm-triangle choke) in his official UFC debut in March 2023 and last fought in July 2023 and took out Valentine Woodburn (a short-notice replacement) by first-round TKO (punches).

Former UFC middleweight champion Michael Bisping said this of Nickal leading into Saturday: “Nickal has the potential to go down as one of the greatest champions that we’ve ever seen – an American version of a Khamzat Chimaev or an Islam Makhachev or a Khabib Nurmagomedov. That’s the kind of pedigree that he has, and that’s what he’s shown so far. When you reach the level Bo Nickal has in wrestling, you’re a special kind of human being. … Bo Nickal has got the ability to be an American Khabib Nurmagomedov.”

The 6-foot-1 Nickal, a southpaw, has a reach of 76 inches and his fights average only 1:22. He lands 2.76 significant strikes per minute with 62 per cent accuracy and absorbs 0.55 with 75 per cent defence. His takedown average is 11.04 (!) per 15 minutes with 50 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is zero per cent.

All five of Nickal’s wins have been by stoppage: Three via submission and two by KO/TKO. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by submission at -140, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +125 and decision at +800. A draw is +5000. To win in Round 1 again, he’s -200.

Full UFC 300 fight card odds.

UFC 300 Odds: Cody Brundage

The 29-year-old Brundage, who now fights out of the Los Angeles area, is unranked in the middleweight division with a career record of 10-5. He also has a strong wrestling background but not at the level of Saturday’s opponent.

Brundage’s first shot to win a UFC roster spot came at Dana White’s Contender Series in September 2020, but Brundage lost to William Knight via first-round TKO. Brundage then took a bout against Joseph Kropschot under in the Legacy Fighting Alliance and beat him by third-round submission (arm-triangle choke) to get back on the UFC’s radar. His debut in that organization came on short-notice against Nick Maximov in September 2021 and Maximov won by decision.

Brundage is 4-3 since in the UFC and is off a first-round KO win (slam and punches) over Zachary Reese in December. Brundage found himself fighting off a triangle-choke attempt and opted to grab Reese and raise him into the air before bringing him crashing back down to the canvas. Reese’s head bounced off the ground and Brundage delivered a few punches before the referee stepped in. Brundage became one of 14 fighters in UFC history to earn a knockout stemming from a slam.

The 6-foot Brundage has a reach of 72 inches and his fights average 6:11. He lands 1.80 significant strikes per minute with 55 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.51 with 43 per cent defence. His takedown average is 2.69 per 15 minutes with 52 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence (which clearly will be important here) is 73 per cent.

He has five wins by KO/TKO, three by submission, one by decision and one by DQ. Brundage has earned nine of his 10 career victories by stoppage, including all four of his UFC wins. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at +2000, followed by decision at +3000 and submission at +4500. To win in Round 1, he’s +2500.

That the fight goes the full three rounds is +600 and no at -1400. That it ends by submission is -140, by KO/TKO/DQ is +125 and by decision is +600.