UFC 296 Odds, Prediction: Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett
One fight to circle on Saturday’s UFC 296 main card from Las Vegas is former interim lightweight champion Tony Ferguson versus the up-and-coming Paddy Pimblett. It’s a lightweight bout that is expected to answer lingering questions about each fighter.
Pimblett is a -300 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Ferguson is a +240 underdog.
Tony Ferguson UFC 296
Ferguson is 26-9-0 since his professional MMA debut in 2008. The 39-year-old California native got his big break when he won the Ultimate Fighter 13 in 2011. Ferguson quickly established himself as a serious contender in the UFC’s lightweight division, winning 14 of his first 15 fights in the Octagon. He has victories over notable names like Rafael dos Anjos, Anthony Pettis and Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone.
“El Cucuy” was scheduled to fight Khabib Nurmagomedov for the undisputed lightweight championship in April 2020, but the COVID pandemic prevented Nurmagomedov from leaving Russia, so Ferguson agreed to take on Justin Gaethje the next month. Ferguson lost against Gaethje, snapping a 12-fight win streak and it’s been all downhill since. He’s lost six straight fights, including back-to-back submission defeats against Nate Diaz and Bobby Green, and plummeted out of the UFC top-15 lightweight rankings.
Ferguson’s shot at the lightweight belt is gone and it won’t come back, so he’s really just looking to end his career on a high note at this point. It will be interesting to see how he looks on Saturday as he has taken a bit of a gamble by training for the fight with retired Navy SEAL David Goggins, who is an ultra-marathon runner, but has no experience in MMA.
At Ferguson’s prime, he was a brutal and creative finisher who seemed to be made of steel. All those years of wear-and-tear have taken their toll and a loss to Pimblett will likely end Ferguson’s UFC career. Still, Pimblett is a significant step down in competition for Ferguson. Pimblett often leaves his chin vulnerable and Ferguson still possesses enough power in his hands to score a knockout if he can connect.
Paddy Pimblett UFC 296
Pimblett has been fighting professionally since 2012, racking up a 20-3 career record in that span. The 28-year-old Liverpool native quickly became a fan favourite when he debuted in the UFC two years ago. He’s currently riding a six-fight win streak overall and he’s a perfect 4-0 in the Octagon.
“Paddy the Baddy” spent the majority of the year recovering from ankle surgery and he hasn’t fought since a controversial unanimous decision win against Jared Gordon last December at UFC 282. It’s been reported that 23 of 24 media sources scored the fight in favour of Gordon, so there’s been accusations Pimblett only got the win because he’s a very marketable rising star. Dismantling a legend like Ferguson would go a long way to silencing Pimblett’s doubters.
Pimblett remains unranked in the UFC’s lightweight division and beating an aging fighter on a long losing streak likely won’t get “the Baddy” into the top-15, but it’s a step forward. This will still be the toughest fight of his career and Ferguson is still a powerful striker with knockout power.
Pimblett has proven he is tough, he is a strong striker and he is a skilled grappler. The biggest knocks against him are his average takedowns and his poor striking defence. The best strategy for Pimblett in this fight is likely to swarm Ferguson with a flurry of lefts and rights to get him vulnerable and on the defensive. From there, Pimblett can hammer away with punches and submission attempts until Ferguson is finished.