UFC 274: Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon Odds, Prediction
Saturday’s UFC 274 main card from Phoenix, AZ gets kicked off with a pair of veteran lightweight fighters as Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone will take on Joe Lauzon. Wins have been hard to come by for both fighters as they each near the end of their career. Cerrone hasn’t won in his last six fights, while Lauzon has just one win over his last five and hasn’t fought in three years.
Cerrone is a -170 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Lauzon is a +130 underdog. The total rounds is set at 2.5 with the Under favoured at -180.
Donald Cerrone UFC 274 Odds
Cerrone (36-16, 2NC) is far from the fighter he was in his heyday. His last win came by unanimous decision against Al Iaquinta in May 2019. Since then, Cerrone has fought six times, picking up five losses and one no contest during that span. Three of those losses have come by first-round TKO, including a memorable 40-second knockout loss against Conor McGregor in January 2020. Cerrone’s last fight ended in another first-round TKO loss, this time against Alex Morono last May.
“Cowboy” has won just about every way imaginable. He has 17 wins by submission, 10 by knockout and seven by decision. He also has two no contests. Cerrone will fight absolutely anyone, anywhere, anytime. That aggressive schedule has clearly cuaght up with the veteran fighter, but he remains a threat, particularly to Lauzon who is just as whethered.
Cerrone unleashes a dangerous blend of Muay Thai and Brazilian jiu-jitsu and he also has a better gas tank than Lauzon. The 39-year-old will have the advantage standing up. He averages 4.43 significant strikes landed per minute with 46 per cent accuracy. That compares to 2.84 significant strikes with 39 per cent accuracy for Lauzon. Cerrone is also the better kickboxer, particularly at distance, which will be key to keeping Lauzon at bay early in the fight.
Cerrone’s best strategy is to stretch this fight as long as possible by kicking Lauzon and maintaining distance. Lauzon will wear down and the longer this fight goes, the less dangerous his power is. If Cerrone can punish Lauzon early and avoid taking any serious damage, he stands a good chance to win this fight.
Justin Lauzon UFC 274 Odds
Lauzon (28-15 MMA record) got back in the win column in his last fight, but that was nearly three years ago. He defeated Jonathan Pearce by first-round TKO (punches) in October 2019, but he preceded that win with four straight losses. Lauzon has never really been able to gain any momentum and never won more than two consecutive UFC fights before suffering a loss.
The 37-year-old is a finisher. He has 17 wins by submission, nine by knockout and two by decision. Lauzon seems incapable of holding back on opponents, which leads to some great, but risky, fights. His aptitude to throw big shots at opponents and take big risks to land submissions has led to him ranking high on the list of most performance bonuses of all time, much like his opponent.
Lauzon doesn’t have the ability to hang with Cerrone in the later rounds, so his best strategy is to immediately come out swinging. He still holds tremendous power in his hands, but he wears down faster than he did earlier in his career. Cerrone has never been particularly hard to hit, so Lauzon needs to take advantage of that early.
Lauzon has an early window to punish Cerrone, who is a famously slow starter and is far more vulnerable than his early days in the UFC. If Lauzon can prevent Cerrone from getting into a rhythm and close the distance gap, he has a chance to end this fight quickly.
UFC 274 Prediction: Cerrone vs. Lauzon
This could be the last trip to the Octagon for both fighters, but each of their legacies are set in stone, so it’s really only personal pride and a little change on the line. Anything is possible on Saturday, but at Lauzon’s age, a 26-month hiatus doesn’t provide a lot of confidence in a strong return. Cerrone has been more active and still has some gas in the tank. Cerrone wins by unanimous decision.
