UFC 273: Gilbert Burns vs. Khamzat Chimaev Odds, Prediction
Despite two championship fights following this welterweight bout, Gilbert Burns versus Khamzat Chimaev is arguably the most anticipated fight on Saturday’s UFC 273 main card from Jacksonville, Fla.
Chimaev is a heavy -500 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Burns enters as a +340 underdog.
Gilbert Burns UFC 273 Odds
After several years at lightweight, Burns (20-4 MMA record) returned to welterweight with a short notice fight against Alexey Kunchenko in August 2019. Burns won that fight by unanimous decision. He followed up that win with victories over Gunnar Nelson (unanimous decision), Demian Maia (TKO – punches) and Tyron Woodley (unanimous decision). That success led to a championship opportunity against Kamaru Usman, which ended in a third-round TKO (punches) loss for the Brazilian Burns.
“Durinho” has six career victories by knockout, eight by decision and another six by submission. He followed up the Usman loss with a unanimous decision win over Stephen Thompson at UFC 264 last July. The victory secured his place as the No. 2 welterweight contender. Burns also has an extensive jiu-jitsu background and is a three-time World Champion and World Cup gold medallist.
The 35-year-old is one of the more well-rounded welterweight fighters. He is a battle tested former title challenger with a 13-4 record in the Octagon. Burns is an ultra-competitive and confident fighter whose elite grappling is a complement to his heavy hands and aggressive style.
The major concern for Burns in this fight is his size. He comes in on the smaller side of most welterweights and he’ll have a four-inch reach disadvantage. That likely means wrestling won’t be an option. Burns will need to keep this fight standing up, despite his reach disadvantage. That’s not necessarily a death sentence for his attack plan. We’ve already seen Burns come out hard and aggressive against Usman, staggering the champ. If Burns can repeat that performance against Chimaev, he’ll have a shot at the upset win.
Khamzat Chimaev UFC 273 Odds
Chimaev (10-0 MMA record) has only had four fights in the Octagon, but he already has the entire UFC on watch. He debuted at middleweight, winning with a second round submission over John Phillips in July 2020, before winning by first round TKO (punches) over Rhys McKee 10 days later at welterweight. The win broke the record for quickest turnaround between UFC wins in the modern era.
“Borz” went back to middleweight against Gerald Meerschaert in September 2020, winning the fight with a knockout punch in just 17 seconds. Chimaev’s last fight was back at welterweight, ending in another first round submission win, this time against Li Jingliang at UFC 267 in October 2021. All-in-all, Chimaev has first round finishes in three of four UFC fights, has won Performance of the Night in all four fights and has out-landed opponents 121-1 in significant strikes during that stretch.
The 27-year-old is the No. 11 ranked welterweight, but you can expect that number to jump higher with a win on Saturday. Chimaev is an elite wrestler with heavy hands and his strength makes him a brutal ground-and-pound opponent. He’s statistically better in almost every category, averaging 8.78 significant strikes landed per minute with 77 per cent accuracy. That compares to 3.12 strikes with 46 per cent accuracy for Burns.
Chimaev also averages 4.65 takedowns per 15 minutes (2.16 for Burns) with 66 per cent accuracy (36 per cent for Burns). It will be interesting to see where Chimaev takes this fight. He’s been so dominant, there isn’t a large sample of fight time to get a real sense of what style he prefers and how he handles adversity. Chimaev is the better striker and wrestler, however, so he’ll be tough to beat in whatever direction this fight heads.
UFC 273 Prediction: Burns vs. Chimaev
Burns has been a staple of the welterweight division for the last three years and legitimately came close to unseating Usman for the belt. However, in this fight, Burns is simply a measuring stick. Burns is Chimaev’s first elite opponent and this fight serves as a springboard to a future title shot down the line. Chimaev wins by second round KO/TKO.