UFC 257 Odds: Andrew Sanchez vs. Makhmud Muradov Prediction

Andrew Sanchez comes into this fight trying to string together some wins and climb the middleweight rankings, while Makhmud Muradov is looking to make his name known in the 185-pound division.  Originally scheduled to be on the preliminary card of UFC 257, this fight was bumped up to the main card after the Ottman Azaitar-Matt Frevola fight was cancelled.

Muradov is the favourite to win at -155 on the MMA odds, with Sanchez coming in at +120.

Andrew Sanchez UFC 257 Odds

While fighting at light heavyweight, Sanchez (12-5) won The Ultimate Fighter 23 in 2016, but followed up the official start of his UFC career with losses in two of his next three fights after returning to middleweight. Since those losses, Sanchez has been impressive, winning three of his last four fights, including a first round KO against Wellington Turman in under a minute, last August, which earned him a Performance of the Night bonus. At just 5-3 in the UFC, Sanchez will need to string together a decent win streak if he wants to jump higher in the middleweight ranks.

Sanchez is a technically sound striker who averages 4.82 significant strikes landed per minute and has better significant strike accuracy than Muradov (48 per cent for Sanchez, 41 per cent for Muradov). He is also a better wrestler than Muradov and has 2.65 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to just 0.51 from Muradov. The big concern when looking at Sanchez’s history is the amount of shots he takes. While he averages almost five significant strikes per minute, he absorbs nearly the same amount of strikes, taking 4.79 significant strikes per minute. Sanchez’s best opportunity to win this fight would is on the ground, but that could be easier said than done when it comes to his opponent.

Makhmud Muradov UFC 257 Odds

Although Muradov (24-6) has only fought twice in the UFC, he is definitely the more experienced fighter and is riding a 13-fight win streak heading into Saturday. Muradov picked up his first UFC win with a unanimous decision over Alessio Di Chirico in September 2019, before winning by third round KO over Trevor Smith, a little over two months later. Muradov was a workhorse before joining the UFC, fighting six times in 2019, but he had four fights cancelled in 2020 and has not fought in over a year. He is not accustomed to rust, so how he handles it could be a determining factor in this fight.

Muradov is also the better striker. Not only does he land more significant strikes per minute (Muradov averages 4.97, Sanchez averages 4.82), Muradov absorbs a lot less punishment (Muradov averages 2.57 significant strikes absorbed per minute, Sanchez averages 4.79). He has 19 stoppage wins in his career, including 16 KO’s, so his game plan will revolve around beating Sanchez on his feet.

Sanchez vs. Muradov UFC 257 Prediction

Sanchez has more experience in the UFC and is a superior wrestler, but that’s where the advantages stop. Muradov is a better striker, has better stamina and can use his quality footwork to raise the pace of the fight and wear Sanchez down. Look for Muradov to keep Sanchez moving and up on his feet throughout the fight, eventually resulting in a unanimous decision win for Muradov.