UFC 256 Odds: Cub Swanson vs. Daniel Pineda Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Dec 10, 2020

cub swanson ufc

Fan-favourite Cub Swanson is set as a slim underdog as he and Daniel Pineda close out Saturday's preliminary card.


The final fight on the UFC 256 preliminary card Saturday night from Las Vegas is a featherweight bout between Americans Cub Swanson and Daniel Pineda. On the MMA odds, Pineda is a -150 favourite with Swanson at +115 for the scheduled three-rounder. Neither fighter is ranked in the featherweight division.

Cub Swanson UFC 256 Odds

With the main card scheduled to begin at 10 p.m. ET from the UFC’s Apex facility on Saturday, this likely will start around 9:30 p.m. ET and shown in the USA on ESPN2/ESPN+.

The 37-year-old Swanson, from California, is 26-11 in a professional career that began way back in 2004. He is considered one of the most entertaining fighters in the UFC and in fact has earned eight fight night bonuses (two Knockout of the Night, six Fight of the Night) in the organization, most of any featherweight in UFC history. He also earned four Fight of the Night bonuses in the WEC, and his 2016 war vs. Doo Ho Choi, won by Swanson via unanimous decision, was voted by many media sites as the Fight of the Year in the UFC.

Swanson ended a four-fight losing streak in his most recent fight in October 2019, beating Kron Gracie by unanimous decision. Swanson wins 42 per cent of the time by both KO/TKO and decision, while seven of his 10 losses are via submission. He hasn’t fought in more than a year due to a torn ACL, ironically happening Dec. 12 also in Las Vegas while representing Team WEC in a Quintet Ultra grappling exhibition.

In the UFC, Swanson’s average fight time is 12:28, and Swanson lands 4.59 significant strikes per minute with 49 per cent accuracy while absorbing 3.65 significant strikes per minute. He also averages 1.06 takedowns per 15 minutes with 50 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is at 60 per cent.

Daniel Pineda UFC 256 Odds

Pineda, 35, is from Texas and is 27-13 with two no-contests in a pro career that dates to 2007. He was a former featherweight champion of Legacy Fighting Championship. Pineda made his UFC debut in 2012 and fought a handful of times before returning to the LFC in the summer of 2014.

He bounced around after and returned to the UFC again in August with a second-round TKO (elbows) victory over Herbert Burns. It earned Pineda the Performance of the Night award, his first in the UFC.

“The Pit” wins the vast majority of the time in his career by submission (67 per cent) and not once by decision, which is very unusual. His average fight time is 8:27 with six of his 13 losses by submission. In UFC fights, Pineda lands 3.45 significant strikes per minute with 49 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.28 per 15. Pineda averages 1.47 takedowns per 15 minutes with 27 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 45 per cent.

UFC 256 Prediction: Swanson vs. Pineda

Swanson has fought much better competition and has a slight reach advantage, so he pulls the slight upset via KO/TKO.

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