UFC 254 Card Odds: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje Prediction

The UFC’s second Fight Island stint comes to an end with UFC 254 on Saturday.  The card will headlined by a lightweight title fight in the main event, which will see Khabib Nurmagomedov defend his belt against No. 1 contender Justin Gaethje.

As division champion, the undefeated Nurmagomedov understandably comes into this fight as the favourite at -290 on the MMA odds. Gaethje is only a +210 underdog, a testament to his skill and potential to upset the champ.

Khabib Nurmagomedov UFC 254 Odds

The 32-year-old Nurmagomedov (28-0) should be rested and well prepared for this fight.  He has only fought twice in the last two years, the infamous submission win over Conor McGregor at UFC 229 in October 2018 and another submission win at UFC 242 in September 2019, this time over Dustin Poirier.  Although it has been just over a year since his last fight, ring rust shouldn’t be an issue. The undefeated Nurmagomedov is the epitome of a consistent fighter.

Nurmagomedov likes to stalk his opponents before closing the gap and grappling to get the fight on the ground. Nurmagomedov averages an astounding 5.09 takedowns per 15 minutes with 44 per cent takedown accuracy. Surprisingly, Gaethje has yet to complete a takedown in his UFC career.

If this fight lands on the ground, Nurmagomedov has a distinct advantage. He swallows opponents with a ground-and-pound attack and will likely be looking for a third-straight submission win.

Justin Gaethje UFC 254 Odds

The 31-year-old Gaethje (22-2) comes into this fight with four KOs/TKOs by punches in his last four fights.  While he was able to finish Donald Cerrone, Edson Barboza and James Vick in the first round, his last fight against Tony Ferguson at UFC 249 in May brought Gaethje to the fifth round for the first time in his career. He was able to finish that one off with a TKO.

Gaethje is an incredibly skilled striker and much more comfortable on his feet than his opponent.  His wins have come by KO/TKO 86 per cent of the time and he averages 7.74 significant strikes landed per minute. Nurmagomedov’s average of 4.29.  Gaethje is lucky he is fighting a weaker striking opponent as he absorbs an average of 8.37 significant strikes per minute, compared to just 1.7 for Nurmagomedov.

Although Gaethje is a former collegiate wrestler and has a skilled defensive game on the ground, there is almost no doubt he will try to keep Nurmagomedov on his feet. The longer this fights goes standing up, the better chance Gaethje has to upset the champ.

Nurmagomedov vs. Gaethje UFC 254 Prediction

There is a glaring vulnerability to Nurmagomedov’s striking game.  The champion likes to force his opponents to the ground, but he is facing a fierce striker who also possesses a strong ground defense.  You can smell an upset in the air. Look for Gaethje to be the first fighter to ever expose and exploit Nurmagomedov’s weaknesses and win by decision.